Theresa May is off to Paris and Berlin again today on another humiliating trip to try and get an extension to the Article 50 period. I should think Macron and Merkel are sick of the sound of the begging bowl - particularly from a country with ambitions to 'go global'. We look like one of those relatives who are always short of money but pretend all is well - just before they tap you up for a loan. I wait with interest to see what happens.
Given what's at stake, there is a remarkable calmness in this country and in Europe. Markets seem fairly stable and it seems to me nobody (outside some in the ERG) thinks we'll be out of the EU on Friday.
However, I don't believe Mrs May is going to get something for nothing.
Macron was sceptical at the last scheduled summit, the one this week is an emergency meeting of the EU27 specifically to resolve Brexit and they will have had plenty of time to study May's letter and decide on a common position. I think it's possible - just - that Macron will refuse a delay and force May, for once in her life, to make a real decision; plunge the nation into a chaos that will take a generation for the Tories to live down or revoke Article 50. However, I don't the chances of this are more than 10% but it's not out of the question. Brussels has run out of patience.
Much more likely is a long delay, a flextension of up to a year with the UK being able to exit whenever we're ready. The price may be to hold another referendum.
Yesterday the government signalled it will hold European elections - something Mrs May expressly said she was not going to do. If you accept this is going to happen anyway, a long flexible delay makes the most sense. It gives time for a referendum and doesn't make it look as if the EU are holding us against our will.
Yesterday the government signalled it will hold European elections - something Mrs May expressly said she was not going to do. If you accept this is going to happen anyway, a long flexible delay makes the most sense. It gives time for a referendum and doesn't make it look as if the EU are holding us against our will.
The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill, the legislation to force the PM to ask for a delay (the one she has asked for anyway) cleared the Lords, and returned to the Commons last night (HERE). It was debated for the final time, an amendment by the die-hard Bill Cash to stop ANY delay beyond May 22nd was massively defeated by 392 - 85, and the Bill, as amended by The Lords, was passed just before 11:00 pm last night by a huge majority, 390-81. It received Royal Assent and is now law.
Our cross party Bill now has Royal Assent. Parliament has voted tonight against the damage & chaos that No Deal would cause for jobs, manufacturing, medicine supplies, policing & security. pic.twitter.com/WNn1TazsJw— Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) 8 April 2019
The debate in The Commons was rowdy to say the least although I think the rowdiest period was after the Bill was passed and Hansard haven't quite got up to date so far this morning. The written transcript ends at 10:35 when Cash's attempt was blocked (HERE) but no doubt it will be completed later this morning. Cash, Francois and others on the extreme right were absolutely spitting blood.
The Bill (HERE) is five pages long but the key part (I think!) is this:
Duties in connection with Article 50 extension
(1) On the day on which this Act receives Royal Assent or on the day after that day,a Minister of the Crown must move a motion in the House of Commons in the form set out in subsection (2).
(2) The form of the motion set out in this subsection is –“That this House agrees for the purposes of section 1 of the European Union(Withdrawal) Act 2019 to the Prime Minister seeking an extension of the period specified in Article 50 (3) of the Treaty on European Union to a period endingon [...]”
(3) A motion in the form set out in subsection (2) must include a date in theposition indicated by the brackets in that subsection
Duties in connection with Article 50 extension
(1) On the day on which this Act receives Royal Assent or on the day after that day,a Minister of the Crown must move a motion in the House of Commons in the form set out in subsection (2).
(2) The form of the motion set out in this subsection is –“That this House agrees for the purposes of section 1 of the European Union(Withdrawal) Act 2019 to the Prime Minister seeking an extension of the period specified in Article 50 (3) of the Treaty on European Union to a period endingon [...]”
(3) A motion in the form set out in subsection (2) must include a date in theposition indicated by the brackets in that subsection
So today a minster must set down a motion with a date showing when the extension period should be delayed to and this will be an amendable motion which will give MPs the power to change it if they think it should be longer (or shorter) than the one Theresa May is asking for.
So, it's possible we will have a long delay (EU27 being willing) with pressure to extend it beyond June 30th coming from both the EU and MPs.
I am starting to believe Brexit is never going to happen.
