We are still in the phoney war period, parliament is in recess although the talks between the government and opposition are said to be continuing and even broadening with working groups now being set up - two years too late. The one thing we remainers should worry about is a breakthrough, but Norman Smith, the BBC's political correspondent, on The Today programme this morning was saying his Labour contacts were pouring a bucket of cold water on the idea they were actually getting anywhere. So, nothing is going to happen immediately it seems.
To fill the news gap, pollsters have been hard at it over the last week or so, ever since Theresa May announced we would be planning for, and probably holding, European elections on May 23rd. Conservative Home has a run down of the polling figures (HERE) and I'm very glad to say they do look worrying for the Tories. In a general election they are likely to lose 59 seats and open the way for Labour. In my opinion, Brexit is going to be toxic for them for the next few decades although they don't realise how bad it will be - yet.
Our own local MP had an interview with the Yorkshire Post a few weeks ago (HERE) where he said he couldn't wait 'for Brexit to be over'. In Nigel Adams' mind, with a bit of luck the PM will suddenly get a majority for her deal, the Withdrawal Agreement & Implementation Bill (the one nobody has seen yet - see below) will slip through like a dose of salts and by the end of summer we remainers will have forgotten all about Brexit. Some hope. This is an even bigger delusion than thinking Brexit will be a success.
Incidentally, his mate BoJo is of the same mind. Writing more fiction on The Telegraph this morning (HERE) he thinks only a 'proper' Brexit can cure the 'polarisation' and 'the sooner we leave the EU, the sooner the name-calling will end'. He adds
"So don’t despair. Don’t give up. [Brexit] is going to happen, and at that wonderful moment it will be as though the lights have come on at some raucous party; or as if a turbulent sea has withdrawn to expose the creatures of the shore...."
Nurse, nurse, Mr Johnson's eyeballs have gone to the back of his head again....
Incidentally, his mate BoJo is of the same mind. Writing more fiction on The Telegraph this morning (HERE) he thinks only a 'proper' Brexit can cure the 'polarisation' and 'the sooner we leave the EU, the sooner the name-calling will end'. He adds
"So don’t despair. Don’t give up. [Brexit] is going to happen, and at that wonderful moment it will be as though the lights have come on at some raucous party; or as if a turbulent sea has withdrawn to expose the creatures of the shore...."
Nurse, nurse, Mr Johnson's eyeballs have gone to the back of his head again....
The Conservative party is in terminal decline. The membership is ageing and in a signpost to a bleak future, only about 4% of the 18-24 age group support the party. Let us not forget since John Major managed it in 1992, in six general elections, they got a small majority in just one (2015) and in that very modest success they sowed the seeds of their own downfall. Cameron was forced to hold the referendum he had promised when he became leader and nemesis inevitably follows hubris.
UKIP and the new Brexit party, both essentially the product of Nigel Farage, are likely to hurt the Conservative vote in any future election. Frustrated leave voters are eager to see the promised Brexit land, the one that doesn't exist and are abandoning the Tories in droves. According to Mark Wallace at Conservative Home (HERE) in some associations up to half the Tory party membership will vote for Farage's Brexit party!! This is stunning.
The closer Mrs May gets to Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour position, the more leave votes she is likely to lose. Paradoxically, it is the old no-deal-is-better-than-bad-deal slogan which is causing the most damage. These people actually think leaving without a deal is a good thing. Had she been honest with Joe Public from the start, the misconception would never have taken root. The party is paying a high price for its own dishonesty.
It cannot deliver what many leave voters crave, a so-called clean Brexit, but it must deliver something closer to the EU which nobody actually wants.
Now to the Withdrawal Agreement & Implementation Bill. Floating quietly as a small dot on the horizon, this will be the next iceberg for the SS Brexit to collide with. The government hasn't published the bill yet but on the 8th of April in the House, Sir Bill Cash said he had been told it was 120 pages long. This is a very long bill and very contentious so will take some time to be debated plus a lot of sound and fury apparently.
BuzzFeed had a report (HERE) by Alex Wickham, who seems to have good contacts, saying the government was still hopeful we could leave in May before the European elections so they're desperate to get Mrs May's deal agreed 'at any cost'. Wickham reports:
"One option for Downing Street is to publish the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, and then let MPs amend it to add a commitment to a permanent customs union. But the Bill is set to cause huge fresh controversy when it is tabled.
"A parliamentary source said: 'The people they have got back [to vote for the agreement] will go nuts at how the deal is implemented in law. The WAB is 100 clauses. Can you imagine automatically writing EU law into British law with no say getting through Parliament? There’s a reason it hasn’t been published, because it’s dynamite.'"
Anybody who thinks we have got anywhere near peak Brexit should think again.
And to show how unfit our present 'constitution' is for the 21st Century, Bill Cash is thinking about challenging the government through the courts on the legality of extending the Article 50 period. He is still of the belief that we should have left on March 29th. The Express reports (HERE):
"Writing in The Sunday Telegraph Sir William commented: 'After hours of discussions with QCs and former judges, I believe the British Government’s extension of Article 50 is unlawful'.
" 'For the Prime Minister to agree to such an extension in these circumstances is to knowingly use her power in a way that she herself believes would risk frustrating Parliament’s intention that the UK must leave the EU. This is legally beyond the pale.'”
I don't say he is wrong, the courts may have to decide that, but really, how can a modern western nation have such an argument in the first place? Brexit is chaotic enough but we now look like a banana republic.
Anybody who thinks we have got anywhere near peak Brexit should think again.
And to show how unfit our present 'constitution' is for the 21st Century, Bill Cash is thinking about challenging the government through the courts on the legality of extending the Article 50 period. He is still of the belief that we should have left on March 29th. The Express reports (HERE):
"Writing in The Sunday Telegraph Sir William commented: 'After hours of discussions with QCs and former judges, I believe the British Government’s extension of Article 50 is unlawful'.
" 'For the Prime Minister to agree to such an extension in these circumstances is to knowingly use her power in a way that she herself believes would risk frustrating Parliament’s intention that the UK must leave the EU. This is legally beyond the pale.'”
I don't say he is wrong, the courts may have to decide that, but really, how can a modern western nation have such an argument in the first place? Brexit is chaotic enough but we now look like a banana republic.
