The Tory party surely cannot survive in its present form much longer. The convulsions caused by Brexit are going to destroy it whatever happens. Nigel Evans, executive secretary of the 1922 committee, says even a delay is an 'existential' threat while Stephen Barclay apparently told the PM we have to 'get out' of the EU (HERE). Both men seem to think leave voters will punish them for not fulfilling their manifesto promise, but since they didn't win an overall majority they can hardly be accused of failing to deliver Brexit. If voters had wanted the hard Brexit described in the Conservative manifesto, they would have given them a majority, but they didn't.
In any case, politicians have been failing to deliver manifesto promises for as long as I can remember. and it's never bothered them before. Had they ever done so we would be living in an earthly paradise by now but we clearly aren't. Where this new found commitment to meeting Manifesto promises came from isn't clear.
I hear Brexiteers claim 80% of people voted for parties that promised to deliver Brexit, but the truth is neither party won a majority and Conservatives don't usually worry too much about delivering what was in Labour's manifesto. Two losers don't make a winner. Voters are split between Labour's version and the Tories version and they can't agree on any compromise. This is where we are at the moment.
But the Tories are damned if they don't deliver Brexit and damned if they do.
If it all goes wrong next week and the EU do not grant an extension, there will be some senior politicians with a lot of explaining to do. Four of them appear in this report in The Guardian HERE.
None of them seem to see any problems in leaving in less than a week's time.
The pressure on Theresa May next week will be absolutely unbearable. Get a long extension which will mean participating in European elections and the party will move to get rid of her by whatever means they can. If she survives, her relationship with the party will be poisonous and the ensuing leadership contest will break out into a permanent running battle that will consume the party.
But fail to get an extension and we're out on Friday 12th April and into a catastrophe we are totally unprepared for.
I wouldn't like to be in her shoes, however fancy they are.
Nigel Evans is quoted in The Guardian, saying that, if May failed to deliver Brexit and all she could do was secure a long extension at an EU summit on Wednesday, she would face overwhelming pressure to step down. “At the moment there is focus on delivering Brexit, but if a long delay becomes a reality I believe the noises off about removing the prime minister will become a cacophony,” he said. “I and many other Conservatives would prefer leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation terms to any humiliating long extension that forces us to take part in the European elections.”
Nigel Adams, our MP who quit last week over May’s decision to hold talks on Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn, said: “Over 170 Conservative MPs including cabinet ministers signed a letter to the PM last week urging her to ensure the UK does not take part in the European elections. Doing so will not end well.”
It is also understood that the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, a potential front runner to succeed May, has been informing back benchers that he would prefer to leave on WTO terms rather than accept a long extension and made this clear in cabinet discussions last week.
Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee, told the Observer: “British participation in European elections three years after a majority of the British people voted to leave the EU would be a massive political mistake. The results for the mainstream parties would be likely to be poor and more extreme parties would be looking forward to a massive opportunity.
“Everything should be done to ensure the UK leaves in the near future, obviating the need to participate in the European elections.”
If we do leave without a deal next week it will be fascinating to hear what excuses men like Evans, Barclay, Adams and Brady come up with when the government is overwhelmed by crises from every corner of the economy.
I bet you wouldn't hear a peep from any of them.
