Robert Peston at ITV (HERE) and The Telegraph (HERE) were both reporting yesterday on Mrs May's comments to the Commons Liaison Committee on Wednesday. Talks with Labour have been meaningful and constructive, it seems and while there are still differences they appear to be moving towards an agreement of some kind on a customs union. Sterling has risen slightly which means the money markets see it as a positive step. Of course getting an agreement between the front benches is one thing but getting Tory MPs on board is quite another.
There were a lot of angry men at the committee - all of them on her own side it seemed.
Theresa May told the gathering of Select Committee chairs that she had an “open mind” on a deal to be done with Labour. “There are differences on issues but on many of the key areas – particularly on the withdrawal agreement – there is common ground,” she said.
Some of this might have been for political damage limitation in yesterday's local council elections - although it clearly didn't help much. Both parties have a vested interest in giving the appearance of progress even if there hasn't been any. Common ground on the WA is hardly a revelation - this will have to be the case to get any agreement with the EU. But I suspect they are getting somewhere, even if by small, tentative fairy steps.
In the end, she may well manage to get a deal through parliament with Labour help but I wouldn't bet on her continuing more than a few days after the deal was ratified or the Tory party surviving in anything like its present form. The cabinet itself is split (HERE) with The Guardian reporting:
"Cabinet ministers are bitterly divided over whether Brexit talks with Labour should broach the possibility of a customs union, with several sceptical that such a deal could even command a majority in parliament or survive hostile backbench amendments.
"A senior cabinet minister suggested a deal involving a customs union could be backed by as few as 90 Tory MPs and would mean a slew of resignations from the government payroll".
If a cobbled-together deal is forced through parliament supported by a minority of government MPs I think a political civil war would break out in the Conservative party and the European argument that has plagued them for thirty years, would carry on into the future.
In an exchange with Bernard Jenkins, Theresa May is said (HERE) to have 'ditched' the no deal is better than a bad deal mantra because she now thinks the deal she has negotiated is actually a 'good one'. Anybody who knows politicians could have seen this one coming. Whatever the deal was it would have been considered a good one - by the person who negotiated it. Unfortunately, she is the only one who does. As far as the ERG and probably many other MPs as well as three quarters of the population are concerned, it is a bad deal.
It is so bad in fact that YouGov are reporting (HERE) in a recent poll it is the first choice in just 2 out of 632 constituencies. Stunningly, remain comes top in 600 and is level pegging with no deal in the other 30. Talk about carrying out the will of the people. I somehow don't think it is.
Before you get too carried away though, bear in mind YouGov say if they try to narrow it down from three options (the deal, no deal or remain) things look a bit different:
"One way of analysing this is to use the 'Condorcet method'. With this approach, instead of looking for which option is most people’s first choice, we should instead test which one beats all the others in a head-to-head fight. We do this by removing each option in turn, and then looking at the second choice of people who backed that option.
"When we remove the Deal as an option and reallocate these preferences in a straight Remain Vs No Deal contest we find that Remain would be slightly ahead, winning 52% to 48%.
"If the Deal is pitted against No Deal, the majority of Remainers swing behind what Theresa May is proposing, meaning it wins 65% to 35%. The calculation for Remain vs the Deal is a lot tighter. Although the vast majority of no dealers swing behind May’s plan, because Remain begins from a much higher starting point the result is a statistical dead heat – with 50% for each option.
"(The model actually shows Remain ahead by a few decimal points, technically making it the Condorcet winner, but this is well within the margin of error, and when rounded it gives an even split)".
Yet I am encouraged. I have never believed even the most reckless government - say Farage as PM and BoJo as Chancellor - would, when faced with the reality of walking away without a deal, as the pound reaches parity with the rupee and factories announce mass closures, they really would go through with it. Maybe I'm wrong with those two particular men, but you get my drift. If the choice is between a head-on collision and continuing an even uncomfortable journey in relative safety it's a no-brainer - isn't it?
