Well, she finally did it. The PM will step down as party leader on June 7th and as prime minister as soon as a new leader is in place. By common consent she was hopeless, an able administrator with a grasp of the detail but lacking any vision of the big picture. Laura Kuenssberg at the BBC (HERE) thinks she was 'overwhelmed' by a job which a few days ago she admitted had "proved even harder than I anticipated".
Anyway, she has gone and with her went the last attempt to get her version of the deal through parliament - for the time being. The race to replace her begins on 10th June with the party trying to get the process finished by mid-end of July.
Let's just think back to Donald Tusk's warning on April 11th, NOT to waste the time granted in the extension to October 31st. That was six weeks ago, in which time talks with the opposition got nowhere. Now the Tories intend to waste another seven weeks selecting a new leader. That's 13 weeks gone out of the 28 we were given.
Parliamentary recesses dates (HERE) have lost or will lose another 11 (seven weeks for the summer recess 20th July - 5th September and four weeks for the conference season 14th September - 9th October) which leaves four weeks to get something agreed with the EU and through both the cabinet and parliament. This would be daunting for superman. It looks impossible to me. Another extension will probably be required and even a revocation of Article 50.
Commentators are beginning to analyse the likely pitch of the leadership hopefuls and nobody thinks any of them will stand on a plain no deal ticket. There is a common belief they will all say it's better to leave with some kind of deal - just not the one Theresa May negotiated. But, and here's the difference, they will ALL begin by saying no deal is better than a bad deal. Now, where have we heard that before? They will ALL claim that when it comes to the crunch, they will hold their nerve and take the country out without a deal.
And we can also be sure if it ever comes to it, they will do exactly the same as Mrs May and ask for another extension - when their credibility with the ERG will be shot.
Talk of renegotiating the deal is hard to credit. We are where we are because of the contents of the original Article 50 letter and May's red lines. Unless the new prime minister decides to start from scratch or proposes to rewrite the Article 50 letter setting out government policy on the Irish border (principle v, page 5 - no return to a hard border, no damage to The Republic) it's hard to see what the EU can offer. All that can be done in the time available is a bit of finessing of the detail
If he or she decides to begin again on an entirely different basis, to rewrite the red lines and the A50 letter, the talks would need to be reopened, which would take months, if not years assuming the EU would agree to it. And we know that they won't change the WA at all, according to The Telegraph HERE:-
"Brussels said it was irrelevant whether the next prime minister was Boris Johnson, who called yesterday for a reopening of the Brexit deal, or his Tory leadership rivals.
"Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, warned that Ireland and the EU would 'hold its nerve', if Mr Johnson stuck to his demand that the controversial Irish border backstop be ditched. Senior EU figures warned that even if Boris Johnson was to take over, he would face exactly the same problems and negotiating stance that Mrs May had".
To make sure the putative leadership candidates are under no illusions. the EU have confirmed their position will not change regardless of who becomes prime minister. The Withdrawal Agreement is closed and won't be reopened. The political declaration could be changed but since this isn't binding anyway so it cannot make any real difference to anything.
They are going to challenge the new prime minister to make a decision to leave without a deal.
Note there is an assumption that Johnson will become that next PM The fat fraud himself, addressing a conference in Interlaken on Friday, said (HERE):
“We will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal.”
Johnson says we should prepare for leaving without a deal - which I assume means closing some car plants and putting a lot of farmers out of business to make things ready. Surely a popular policy for any incoming PM?
In any case the new prime minister will have to go to the palace and show or confirm that they do indeed have a majority in the House. Johnson particularly might find this difficult, if not impossible.
It is a poisoned chalice. I forecast whoever takes over from Mrs May will not last a year. The next twelve months will probably be the most turbulent in recent history - and given what we have endured since 2016 this is saying something. Hold on to your hats.
