Saturday 11 May 2019

THE DECLINING INFLUENCE OF BRITAIN

Last week in the central Romanian city of Sibiu, overlooked by the Carpathian mountains, an informal EU summit took place although you would barely know it if you read only the British press. Mrs May decided to miss it, probably out of sheer embarrassment over Brexit. But to show how unimportant it was to her, she sent Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay a man who isn't a household name even in his own household.

Given that May couldn't be bothered, Barclay's speech (HERE) is therefore a bit of a surprise. The other EU leaders who listened to him must have been baffled by his words. 

Most of it looks like an application from a potential accession candidate and where it doesn't, he makes it seem as if the EU and the UK will be equal partners in some future endeavours.  Neither approach is likely to be well received. We are a small and declining country trying to look far more powerful and prosperous than we really are.  This is him:

"Sibiu is an opportunity for us to consider the sustainable future relationship between the UK and the EU, for as the Political Declaration itself says, we need to take account of the unique context between us. This relationship has to be informed by the global challenges we share as fellow Europeans and that’s why the opportunity to have this discussion today is so important".

It wasn't important enough for the PM to be there herself mind but even if we neglect that it all must have sounded like one party to a divorce, halfway through an aggravated settlement beginning to discuss the nuptials for the remarriage. Bizarre.

He talked about the security, environmental and economic challenges we face and said, "These challenges we share are actually bigger than the issue of Brexit, they are more significant, more complex than the challenges we are looking at in the Brexit context. And they demand that we continue across Europe to work together in terms of our future relationship".

I bet there was some disbelief in the room if not actual shaking of heads.  During the referendum campaign we thought they needed us more than we need them economically. That argument failed badly so we are now trying the same tack on security matter.

"The UK will continue to work with and alongside EU Member States and other European nations in a range of fora; Whether it’s through the UN Security Council, NATO, the G7 or indeed smaller groups such as the Joint Expeditionary Force.  Through NATO, the UK will continue to prioritise strengthening the transatlantic relationship - and thus build a safer Europe".

He talks about the RAF sending Typhoons to Constanta on the Black Sea in 2017 and 2018 in the same way as the D-Day landings. We actually sent four aircraft which undoubtedly had Putin quivering with fear.

We now have a navy with just 20 major surface ships and ten submarines. At the outbreak of WW2 we had 332 vessels including 60 submarines. The Royal Navy was the world's largest naval fleet yet we still couldn't win the war without the Americans. The idea we can defend Europe is for the birds. At best we might offer a bit of help so to oversell our capabilities as Barclay did must have come across as pathetic. It's Corporal Jones stuff.

The whole thing was a combination of bigging up our status mixed with veiled threats that if the EU didn't treat us right they would be less secure in some way. It was sprinkled with references to tackling dangers 'together' with 'close co-operation' on all sorts of issues. Close cooperation that we already have as a member of the EU but want to carry on after we leave in exactly the same way, as a non-member. It doesn't make sense.  He gets in a reference to the UK having a "dedicated channel of communication between Europol and UK law enforcement".  What is this if it isn't membership lite?

He went on without a trace of irony or even self awareness that:

"The UK, European institutions, industry, NATO, and third countries must band together to strengthen our global security capacity".

Britain's style of 'banding together' is Brexit.  Surely an unmistakable signal to the world that we cannot work with other countries - under any circumstances.

He ends with a familiar offering.

"In more recent years some more established figures have been slow to accept that a new generation within UK politics wish to address the challenges of our age, the challenges we are looking at in this conference, like climate change, like economic growth, but to do so in ways that work with our neighbours whilst also offering scope for more flexibility and innovation.

"We, the UK and the EU, face shared challenges, with shared values, but post Brexit will do so from a different starting point in which the UK is not part of the EU, but it remains a part of Europe"

Once again, there is the delusion that the EU and Europe are separate entities.  It is like Juncker telling the world he wants a close relationship with the British Isles but doesn't recognise Westminster and intends to deal with the four nations of the UK separately and directly. It would be seen as an insult in Britain. 

The EU is Europe, or will be in a few years when over 40 nations will be part of the bloc, and Europe is the EU. The two are indivisible and indistinguishable, particularly in external relations and cross border issues with third countries which is what we will be.  Barclay has yet to recognise that, but he will one day.

We want the EU to treat us as an equal. We want to carry on with close cooperation. We want influence in Europe. But our PM can't even be bothered to attend a summit. Pitiful.

InFacts has a piece on this topic HERE.