Friday 28 June 2019

BREXIT - A NEVER ENDING STORY. The divisions will carry on for years and years whatever the outcome.

There is a thoughtful article HERE on the Politics means Politics blog by Dr Simon Usherwood, a Reader in Politics at the University of Surrey. It's an excellent counter argument to those who say the EU is somehow trying to keep us in the bloc, which of course it isn't.  But there is a larger truth at the end of the article, about a scenario in which we remain in the EU, either by a second referendum or by revoking Article 50.

Dr Usherwood asks if this would put an end to the divisions that have opened up since 2015. The answer of course is no. They would just rumble on and possibly become even worse.

There are only three possible Brexit outcomes. Remain, leave with a deal or leave without one.

If we remain there will be seething resentment, even if this is by a second referendum. The ERG will never accept it and all the old arguments will simply continue and, as Usherwood says, the EU might have a member capable of being awkward and blocking reforms or progress that the others are anxious to get on with:

"And that’s a problem for the EU, because its most important decisions remain ones taken by unanimity: finances, planning, enlargement. Even on those matters decided by majority voting, having an unhappy and disruptive UK at the table is not the path to a more functional organisation".

If we leave with a deal that looks anything remotely like the one Theresa May negotiated, the result will be the same. The ERG and Farage would claim we are a vassal state following rules and laws over which we have no control. But the resentment would be reinforced by a long slow economic decline. This may not be as far fetched as people think. To get any deal through the House a future Tory PM will be forced to tack close to Labour with a much softer Brexit. I can certainly see Hunt doing this, but it's not impossible that BoJo would do it as well. He is surely the most duplicitous and untrustworthy man, the only question mark is which side will feel betrayed afterwards.

Looked at like this, the last option, a Boris-led no deal exit, would perhaps be a good solution. John Danzig made this suggestion (HERE) a few days ago. It would probably end all the divisions in a short, sharp shock. All the fantasies would be exploded in one relatively short period and we can then begin to come together. Danzig said:

"But under a Boris Johnson prime ministership, Brexit will be shocking and sharp, a sudden and sheer drop over the cliff edge at the stroke of midnight on Halloween, with the strongest, highest possibility of Britain leaving without any deal, which would be catastrophic".

This might lead to 'rapid and seismic' end to Brexit as Danzig predicts - but it might not. There is no way of knowing where we might end up. But it's an interesting speculation nevertheless.  

I still do not believe a no-deal exit is likely. Tony Blair used to complain about how long things took to accomplish, even relatively minor reforms. Prime ministers sometimes complain how little real power they exercise in practice. Brexit is close to a revolution and I just wonder if Boris Johnson would be able to take us our without a deal under any conceivable circumstances at all. I honestly don't believe he could even if he genuinely wanted to.

Peter Foster, The Telegraph's Europe editor had a fascinating Twitter thread yesterday where he examines what might happen in a no-deal scenario:

If you read the whole thread you will see Foster thinks the EU will not want to appear the 'ogre' in this situation but they will levy tariffs and they will apply SPS checks on our goods. Both Dutch ports and Calais have invested in staff and software to siphon off British trucks for inspection:




Foster concludes all the delays will be on our side of the Channel. The EU will say they are ready but the British are not. Only about 40% of businesses have registered to become exporters, fewer have purchased the software and customs agents are in short supply.  He thinks the bigger companies are prepared but the smaller ones - using the same roads and facilities - are not. Hence we will soon be totally clogged up after 31st October.

I have to say this is a problem outlined by Richard North on the EU Referendum blog a very long time ago and I take my hat off to him for having the foresight.

But it's just one problem. There are many others and they will be coming at BoJo relentlessly day after day. Food and medicine shortages. Factories on short time or closing. A full blown Sterling crisis as the economy goes into a tail spin.

When all this is pointed out to him as the moment of decision approaches he will claim to have recognised all of the myriad problems as if they had been suddenly revealed to him alone in a sort of divine flash - having ignored all the earthly warnings over the last three years - and he will explain it as only he can, in a flurry of hyperbole and exotic language.

Will it have any effect on the rising anger?  Who knows?  But once you accept that no deal is not an option, the simple choice will be between staying in or accepting a slightly modified version of May's deal.

Brexit may then be 'delivered' but the divisions will go on for years whichever the outcome.
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