The government needs to stop obsessing about disgruntled leave voters in the north and start worrying about very unhappy remainers everywhere. Not only are they the majority, and growing in number, they are also far more committed to the cause. New polling by YouGov, working with researchers at UCL, is published in The New Statesman HERE showing just how differently the two sides view Brexit. It makes encouraging reading.
Brexiteers, both in government and out, consistently claim that the Conservative party is finished unless Brexit is delivered and if there was another referendum, leave voters would be out on the streets rioting. The whole basis of this claim is undermined by the poll which shows what I think many of us have believed from the outset. That many leave voters are not that bothered.
It seems to me that the Tory party is far more likely to survive by revoking Article 50.
Brexiteers, both in government and out, consistently claim that the Conservative party is finished unless Brexit is delivered and if there was another referendum, leave voters would be out on the streets rioting. The whole basis of this claim is undermined by the poll which shows what I think many of us have believed from the outset. That many leave voters are not that bothered.
It seems to me that the Tory party is far more likely to survive by revoking Article 50.
Researchers asked respondents to rank four possible Brexit outcomes:
- No-deal
- Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement
- A softer Brexit
- Remaining in the EU
In other words, YouGov found remainers have much more commitment to remaining than leavers have for leaving. Almost a quarter of leavers preferred to remain rather than at least one leave option.
This is not really surprising to me. Many (if not most) leave voters are not bothered about the EU in the slightest. Their's was a protest vote about all sorts of other unrelated things (lack of housing, austerity and so on). Others made the decision on a whim (BoJo himself is a good example). The idea that a big majority are enthusiastic Brexiteers like Bernard Jenkin or IDS is for the birds.
The survey also showed why Brexiteers fear a second referendum. Barely a third of voters want a no deal Brexit, against 44.5% who prefer to remain in the EU. If you include the 12.8% who want the totally irrational softer Brexit where we accept all the rules but give up our voice, then 57% would support, or could easily be persuaded to support, remaining with our European partners.
Note that 9.7% of leave voters now want to remain while only 6.5% of remain voters want to leave with no deal. This change alone would eliminate leave's majority in the 2016 referendum - apart from anything else like the demographics. I see this changing of minds in favour of remain in every poll, it's very consistent. Nowhere do you see the reverse, a movement towards favouring leave.
In fact only 59.3% of leave voters prefer to leave without a deal.
On every measure, remain is the clear winner. We are more cohesive (81.2% still want to remain) and we are more committed. The leave side is more fragmented and half-hearted about Brexit.
Farage also should be worried. While 40% of those over 60 voted for his Brexit Party in the European elections, just 11% of people under 30 did. The generational divide is very clear.
Polls like these should spur us on. We are pushing at an open door. The hinges may be a little stiff and we're going to have to keep up the pressure but it will soon be wide open.
In fact only 59.3% of leave voters prefer to leave without a deal.
On every measure, remain is the clear winner. We are more cohesive (81.2% still want to remain) and we are more committed. The leave side is more fragmented and half-hearted about Brexit.
Farage also should be worried. While 40% of those over 60 voted for his Brexit Party in the European elections, just 11% of people under 30 did. The generational divide is very clear.
Polls like these should spur us on. We are pushing at an open door. The hinges may be a little stiff and we're going to have to keep up the pressure but it will soon be wide open.
