If we go back to autumn 2016, just before the Tory Party Conference, Mrs May had been coming under pressure to trigger Article 50. David Davis himself had written in July on the assumption we would be out by the end of 2018. The grassroots as well as some politicians were becoming restive at the apparent inertia. Hence she committed to firing the starting gun (HERE) before the end of March 2017. It was probably the maximum time she thought she could give herself to get a plan ready. She eventually managed it with 48 hours to spare. We now know there was no agreed plan or even a realistic objective. It was this total ignorance in the Tory party about how difficult the process
would be which led directly to May pulling the trigger without knowing
where we would end up.
It was a fatal mistake, fatal to May's premiership anyway. But the situation is about to be repeated.
More than two years later, the current political atmosphere has precise echoes of those nervous days at the start of 2017. The party is absolutely desperate to finally get Brexit 'delivered'. All the leadership candidates are being forced to set out their plans and the front runners are committing to leaving with or without a deal by October 31st. This is madness. It is another hostage to fortune. They will never do it.
BoJo said the party faced 'extinction' (HERE) if it failed to deliver Brexit. Owen Paterson added (HERE) that the Tories face 'oblivion' for the same failure. Once more, there is not the slightest recognition of the massive problems of trying to get the EU to renegotiate the deal or to prepare the nation to leave without one, something which will send a whirlwind through the nation's agriculture and manufacturing industries.
We are already on borrowed time, the two years allowed under Article 50 having been completely wasted negotiating a deal that almost nobody likes and still we are engaged in wishful thinking and empty bluster. More than that there is not the slightest sense of urgency in the party as they leisurely go about choosing yet another doomed leader before strolling off for a six week break.
When will someone at the very top of the Tory party level with the British people?
They are terrified of Farage but lack the courage to confront his lies, mainly because a lot of them secretly believe everything he says. Hence, the next leader is forced to make totally unrealistic and unrealisable commitments that tack towards the extreme position of The Brexit Party.
But make no mistake, if it was Farage himself sitting in Downing Street as PM later this year he wouldn't take us out of the EU without a deal.
But make no mistake, if it was Farage himself sitting in Downing Street as PM later this year he wouldn't take us out of the EU without a deal.
The pound is coming under pressure already as the markets get twitchy about the prospects of a no deal exit. The instant this became government policy - and it would have to be announced officially to get the civil service contingency planning properly underway - the pound would do a Tom Daley impression, half the government would resign, the Tory party would split and we may even find senior civil servants quitting. The howls of pain from the farming community, industry and business organisations would be something to behold. This would turbocharge the pounds fall.
The expected announcement today of the closure of the Ford engine plant in Bridgend will become a routine thing.
No prime minister could survive.
The EU know all this and will watch as the new PM is tested by placing themselves between the jaws of a giant nutcracker. On the one side is the EU and on the other, British industry and more than half the nation. As another autumn arrives the next prime minister is going to be squeezed like no PM has ever been squeezed before in our history.
If it is BoJo, how fitting that would be. The 30 years or more of mythical grievances that he set off thirty years ago as a young Times reporter in Brussels, that the press barons, Farage and the ERG have gradually turned into a high octane casus belli against our friends and allies in Europe, will finally come to an excruciating head as the pincers close.
Remember, the situation the Tories find themselves in is not one of unforeseen events or circumstance. It has not been forced on them. This is a deliberate policy initiative which many of them campaigned for.
The talking and fudging, the can-kicking and prevarication, the dodging and weaving, the lies and the bluster will all have to end. And what an end it would be.
Is it to be death or glory? Triumph or disaster?
And the insanity is that this is not to WIN anything at all. There is no glory or triumph to be gained. If the million to one gamble succeeds and the EU capitulate we will get a transition period where nothing will change.
But if the EU stand firm the PM will face a choice of a catastrophe or a disaster. If he or she chooses to leave it will be an economic catastrophe. If they choose to beg for another extension or revoke Article 50, the ensuing uproar will be the end of their short career and the Tory party as a serious political force. It will be a political disaster.
This is what Brexit has done to us. The Tory party is like a gambling addict. Each time they lose, as in the sequencing of the negotiations, or on the money or Irish border question, they double down hoping the next gamble will resolve it all.
The final roll of the dice is coming up. We have stacked every chip we have left on the threat of leaving without a deal. The ante is at absolute maximum. At stake is virtually everything we value, not least our international reputation for pragmatism and rational thinking.
Stand by.
Update: Labour List come to the same conclusion about the Tories risking everything on no deal (HERE).
The expected announcement today of the closure of the Ford engine plant in Bridgend will become a routine thing.
No prime minister could survive.
The EU know all this and will watch as the new PM is tested by placing themselves between the jaws of a giant nutcracker. On the one side is the EU and on the other, British industry and more than half the nation. As another autumn arrives the next prime minister is going to be squeezed like no PM has ever been squeezed before in our history.
If it is BoJo, how fitting that would be. The 30 years or more of mythical grievances that he set off thirty years ago as a young Times reporter in Brussels, that the press barons, Farage and the ERG have gradually turned into a high octane casus belli against our friends and allies in Europe, will finally come to an excruciating head as the pincers close.
Remember, the situation the Tories find themselves in is not one of unforeseen events or circumstance. It has not been forced on them. This is a deliberate policy initiative which many of them campaigned for.
The talking and fudging, the can-kicking and prevarication, the dodging and weaving, the lies and the bluster will all have to end. And what an end it would be.
Is it to be death or glory? Triumph or disaster?
And the insanity is that this is not to WIN anything at all. There is no glory or triumph to be gained. If the million to one gamble succeeds and the EU capitulate we will get a transition period where nothing will change.
But if the EU stand firm the PM will face a choice of a catastrophe or a disaster. If he or she chooses to leave it will be an economic catastrophe. If they choose to beg for another extension or revoke Article 50, the ensuing uproar will be the end of their short career and the Tory party as a serious political force. It will be a political disaster.
This is what Brexit has done to us. The Tory party is like a gambling addict. Each time they lose, as in the sequencing of the negotiations, or on the money or Irish border question, they double down hoping the next gamble will resolve it all.
The final roll of the dice is coming up. We have stacked every chip we have left on the threat of leaving without a deal. The ante is at absolute maximum. At stake is virtually everything we value, not least our international reputation for pragmatism and rational thinking.
Stand by.
Update: Labour List come to the same conclusion about the Tories risking everything on no deal (HERE).
