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This was the scene in Leeds city centre last night at a Leeds for Europe organised demonstration against proroguing parliament. Colleagues from SfE were there and we intend to join the demonstration in York tomorrow (11:00 am St Helens Square). I note there were similar demos across the country - including Stoke-on-Trent. If Johnson hadn't realised before the strength and organisation of the grassroots opposition to Brexit he will now.
This came less than 36 hours after the announcement was made and shows how rapidly opposition can be organised as well as the depth of feeling there is against Brexit and specifically the type of no-deal Brexit Johnson seems to be headed for.
You will know that I do not believe (and have never believed) Johnson or indeed any sane prime minister of the UK would pull the nation out of the EU overnight without a deal. The consequences are simply unthinkable and any PM who did it wouldn't last a week. I noted on Newsnight last night there was quite a long item about this winter's flu vaccine, which has to be designed for a specific virus. This year for various reasons, scientists were later than normal in identifying the precise vaccine needed and because of this, shipping of supplies will be taking place in November - after Brexit. Doctors are concerned supplies will be disrupted and the at-risk groups will not be vaccinated in time.
Imagine the deaths of hundreds of elderly people through the lack of a flu jab. Laid at the door of a PM pursuing an arbitrary exit date for no good reason except his own ego. And this would be just the tip of a very big iceberg for HMS Brexit to run into. Johnson's plan is to apply so much pressure to the EU that they are forced to make concessions - but he will crack a long time before the EU27 because we have the most to lose.
Proroguing parliament for five weeks may not have been the cleverest move. Apart from bolstering and unifying opposition to his plans, it has not been well received in Europe. I saw this on Reuters about Norbert Roettgen, chairman of the German foreign affairs committee in the lower house of parliament, and a close ally of Angela Merkel. This is the tweet from him that Reuters refer to:
If the rationale was to scare the #EU into renegotiation by removing #parliament as the final obstacle to #NoDeal #Brexit, the #UK government has been gravely misled. The executive denying parliament its democratic say at this decisive moment, cannot be rewarded by the EU.— Norbert Röttgen (@n_roettgen) August 29, 2019
Proroguing has made the prospect of any meaningful concessions by the EU to the Withdrawal Agreement less likely and I can see the logic of Roettgen's tweet. They were very unlikely before, now vanishingly small.
If the EU are seen as weak in the face of this sort of provocation, making further concessions to those who shout the loudest and mover furthest from honest, open democratic behaviour would only encourage others to try the same.
Johnson (aka Dominic Cummings) has painted himself into an even tighter corner with no wriggle room whatsoever. We are headed for a serious constitutional crisis of the kind not seen since Charles I in 1642. Parliament won that battle and I expect them to win this one.
MPs are planning to take over the order paper on Wednesday next week. BBC Parliament will probably be the most watched channel on British television. It should be very exciting, buckle up.
