The Sunday Times has obviously got a mole inside No 10. It published this morning what it claims is a leaked Whitehall document setting out "the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than
worst-case scenarios" , as the UK looks "increasingly likely
to crash out of the EU without a deal". It's a hair raising scenario and not even the worst case, as the document makes clear. Dominic Cummings will be spitting blood.
The Sunday Times report: Operation Chaos: Whitehall’s secret no‑deal Brexit preparations leaked, says:
"Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine, a three-month meltdown
at its ports, a hard border with Ireland and rising costs in social care in the
event of a no-deal Brexit, according to an unprecedented leak of government documents that lay bare
the gaps in contingency planning"
Their report then summarises the anticipated problems:
● The return of a hard border in Ireland with possible protests, road blockages and “direct action”
● Logjams caused by months of border delays could 'affect fuel distribution'
● Up to 85% of lorries using the main Channel crossings 'may not be ready' for French customs.
● Significant disruption at ports will last up to three months before the flow of traffic 'improves. to 50-70% of the current rate
● Petrol import tariffs, which the government has set at 0%, will 'inadvertently' lead to the closure of two oil refineries, 2,000 job losses, widespread strike action and disruptions to fuel availability
● Passenger delays at EU airports, St Pancras, Eurotunnel and Dover
● Medical supplies will 'be vulnerable to severe extended delays' as three-quarters of the UK’s medicines enter the country via the main Channel crossings
● The availability of fresh food will be reduced and prices will rise.
● Potential clashes between UK and European Economic Area fishing vessels amid predictions that 282 ships will sail in British waters illegally on Brexit day
● Protests across the UK, which may 'require significant amounts of police resource[s]'
● Rising costs will hit social care, with 'smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit'
● Gibraltar will face delays of more than four hours at the border with Spain 'for at least a few months', which are likely to 'adversely impact' its economy
● The return of a hard border in Ireland with possible protests, road blockages and “direct action”
● Logjams caused by months of border delays could 'affect fuel distribution'
● Up to 85% of lorries using the main Channel crossings 'may not be ready' for French customs.
● Significant disruption at ports will last up to three months before the flow of traffic 'improves. to 50-70% of the current rate
● Petrol import tariffs, which the government has set at 0%, will 'inadvertently' lead to the closure of two oil refineries, 2,000 job losses, widespread strike action and disruptions to fuel availability
● Passenger delays at EU airports, St Pancras, Eurotunnel and Dover
● Medical supplies will 'be vulnerable to severe extended delays' as three-quarters of the UK’s medicines enter the country via the main Channel crossings
● The availability of fresh food will be reduced and prices will rise.
● Potential clashes between UK and European Economic Area fishing vessels amid predictions that 282 ships will sail in British waters illegally on Brexit day
● Protests across the UK, which may 'require significant amounts of police resource[s]'
● Rising costs will hit social care, with 'smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit'
● Gibraltar will face delays of more than four hours at the border with Spain 'for at least a few months', which are likely to 'adversely impact' its economy
The document itself is HERE
This may be the first time in history that a government's rapid-rebuttal unit has been forced to direct its focus at itself.
Let me say none of what's in the leaked documents is a surprise or indeed a revelation and the report even quotes a senior 'source' (presumably the person who leaked it) saying, "This is not Project Fear — this is the
most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These
are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios — not the worst case."
It will of course still be dismissed as 'project fear' but nonetheless it shows why the government will never allow it to happen. The Sunday Times article is just one more demonstration why no government is about to willfully unleash a no-deal Brexit on an unsuspecting people. It's also why I have never believed we will exit without a deal. It's simply unthinkable.
It could not have come a a worse time for Johnson. He is to meet Marcon and Merkel this week ahead of the G7 summit in Biarritz, both of whom will be fully briefed on the leak - with a snigger I assume - and a blizzard of advertising about preparations for a no-deal Brexit is about to begin to reassure us that the government has everything sorted out.
The leaker obviously knew what he or she was doing.
