Johnson's letter to Donald Tusk yesterday reminds me of those occasions when a group of people have been discussing a particularly complicated problem for some time when they are joined by someone who has no idea either of the issue itself or what has been discussed up to that point. They then proceed to 'suggest' all the easiest and most obvious solutions that were discounted at the very outset. Before anyone accuses me of arrogance, let me say I have often been on both sides of these encounters.
The day began with him claiming he was confident that EU leaders will 'back down'. The sheer bull-headed obduracy of this is hard to overstate. Mrs May tried to get changes to the backstop and was told the
Withdrawal Agreement would not be reopened. Johnson has now sent
Stephen Barclay the Brexit Secretary and his new chief negotiator David Frost.off to Brussels at different times to be told exactly the same, no changes to the backstop. Johnson himself is now set to travel to Berlin and Paris this week to ask for changes "face-to-face" as if he didn't believe his own envoys.
One imagines the EU27 are starting to think our PM is deaf as well as stupid.
His letter is simply a stating and restating of the problem as far as I can see - although I notice he now says the UK is committed to "retaining the benefits of the Single Electricity Market". He just couldn't resist an attempt at one final cherry.
Johnson says the changes to the WA relate "primarily" to the backstop but doesn't say what else he wants to change.
Finally at the bottom of page 3 he gets to the main point:
"The UK and the EU have already agreed that "alternative arrangements" can be part of the solution. Accordingly:
- I propose that the backstop be replaced with a commitment to put in place such arrangements as far as possible before the end of the transition period, as part of the future relationship.
- I also recognise that there will need to be a degree of confidence about what would happen if these arrangements were not all fully in place at the end of that period. We are ready to look constructively and flexibly at what commitments might help, consistent of course with the principles set out in this letter"
The old "alternative arrangements" are always a good stand-by aren't they and so "abundant" too, according to Johnson. However, once again he doesn't trouble himself to give even a hint as to what these might be - but whatever they are, they should be in place before the end of the transition period - as far as possible of course, which is to say not very far!
And then he talks about something that looks remarkably like a 'backstop'. This is something to give a 'degree of confidence' about what might happen if the mysterious alternative arrangements fail to materialise. The EU would be forgiven for shouting that is exactly what the backstop does!!
And then he talks about something that looks remarkably like a 'backstop'. This is something to give a 'degree of confidence' about what might happen if the mysterious alternative arrangements fail to materialise. The EU would be forgiven for shouting that is exactly what the backstop does!!
Johnson himself then spoke to Leo Varadkar for an hour last night who apparently gave the same uncompromising message: the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-opened.
On page four of his letter comes this:
Between the lines the desperation is almost physical.
What it says is we need, really, really need a deal. Johnson's letter does not come across as being from someone relaxed about a no-deal Brexit, or indeed someone who said he would sit back and wait for the EU27 to come to him. It is a plea by a desperate man. Outwardly, he is not only confident the EU will back down, he is equally confident that parliament will support him. This is what an Eton education does for you and look what happened to Cameron.
He also talks of regulatory divergence:
"Although we will remain committed to world-class environment, product and labour standards, the laws and regulations to deliver them will potentially diverge from those of the EU. That is the point of our exit and our ability to enable this is central to our future democracy."
"Time is very short. But the UK is ready to move quickly, and, given the
degree of common ground already, I hope that the EU will be ready to do
likewise. I am equally confident that our Parliament would be able
to act rapidly if we were able to reach a satisfactory agreement which
did not contain the 'backstop': indeed it has already demonstrated that
there is a majority for an agreement on these lines."
Between the lines the desperation is almost physical.
What it says is we need, really, really need a deal. Johnson's letter does not come across as being from someone relaxed about a no-deal Brexit, or indeed someone who said he would sit back and wait for the EU27 to come to him. It is a plea by a desperate man. Outwardly, he is not only confident the EU will back down, he is equally confident that parliament will support him. This is what an Eton education does for you and look what happened to Cameron.
He also talks of regulatory divergence:
"Although we will remain committed to world-class environment, product and labour standards, the laws and regulations to deliver them will potentially diverge from those of the EU. That is the point of our exit and our ability to enable this is central to our future democracy."
Assuming we ever get to the stage of negotiating a Canada style FTA, as Johnson has declared, this sentence will come back to haunt him. FTAs invariably talk of regulatory convergence as a means of increasing trade. Here he is doing the opposite. It will be free trade agreement like no other in history and designed specifically to reduce trade. If it can be done in less than ten years I would be surprised.
Finally, after a month of doing nothing as PM, beyond gearing up for an election and virtually ignoring the biggest crisis facing the country for decades, he urges the EU to "work energetically".
"I believe that a solution on the lines we are proposing will be more stable, more long lasting, and more consistent with the overarching framework of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement which has been decisive for peace in Northern Ireland. I hope that the EU can work energetically in this direction and for my part I am determined to do so."
Ollie Robbins and Theresa May must be shaking their heads at the infantile quality of it.
The leaked papers on Operation Yellowhammer provide a grim backdrop to all of this and rather than making it appear we are ready for a no-deal Brexit, it has only revealed how under prepared we are. The Freight Transport Association has been at the forefront of the warnings and they now say a hard Brexit would be “far, far more potentially disruptive” than industry has been told to prepare for.
According to Politico:
"The FTA was particularly blindsided by the suggestion in the
leaked document that the government’s own no-deal zero-tariff policy
could hit the U.K.’s domestic fuel industry, leading to the closure of
two refineries, strikes and disruption to fuel availability, [Deputy CEO James] Hookham
said.
"While he said the FTA has not seen the original Yellowhammer
document, Hookham added: “That really frightened me, because that’s
clearly got the potential to disrupt all U.K. goods distribution
activity and commercial activity, if the domestic fuel supplies are
under threat. That’s certainly never been raised with us before."
According to the FTA, in three years of discussions with the government the possibility of fuel shortages had never been raised at all.
Are we ready for a no-deal Brexit? No. Will it happen? No. Johnson's letter is the UK starting to blink. Johnson is preparing to shift the blame. If that doesn't appear to be working look out for a total capitulation.
The New Statesman has a nice article about the letter - what it says and what it means HERE.
