Monday 26 August 2019

JOHNSON'S OWN GASLIT WORLD

The Independent accused the PM of 'gaslighting' voters yesterday, using a word in a way that I confess I had never heard of. I had to look it up. The word is apparently used to describe abusive behavior, specifically when an abuser manipulates information in such a way as to make a victim question their own sanity. Gaslighting is intended to makes someone doubt their perception of reality.

This thought was prompted after he met Donald Tusk on the fringes of the G7 summit in Biarritz and publicly proclaimed the chances of a deal were 'improving'.   EU sources said he actually brought no fresh ideas or suggestions to the meeting.

And after bragging in the Sunday papers that he would withhold £30 billion from the divorce bill unless the EU gave Britain a free trade deal (presumably one where we dictate all the terms), as the Politico website reported:

"But when it came to it, the issue didn’t even come up during their talk on the sidelines of the summit in the coastal French town, according to EU officials"

Politico reckoned this was something of a climb-down for Johnson and went on:

"Pressed on whether he would bring forward the 'credible alternatives' to the backstop that the EU is demanding as the basis for further talks to avoid a no-deal Brexit, he fudged it. There were 'a large range of alternative arrangements' which 'will be discussed with our friends in the coming weeks,' he said."

A senior unnamed EU diplomat said after the meeting that Donald Tusk was "none the wiser" on what these "alternative arrangements" are that Johnson envisages for the Irish border to avoid the need for the disputed backstop.

However, I don't think Johnson was gaslighting voters as The Independent claim - he is gaslighting himself.  His perception of reality was always shaky as we know from his career both as a journalist and a politician. To him, facts are not the solid granite-like things that make reality possible. Rather they are half-seen and elusive, lasting just long enough to provide a toe-hold to base a story or a quip on and be discarded immediately afterwards.  Things are as he wants them to be only for the fleeting moment of utterance and no longer.

He actually believes these 'alternative arrangements' exist.

Downing Street continues to insist the Brexit will happen on October 31st 'whatever happens' when it is in fact highly unlikely if not totally impossible - as the EU know very well.  These 'do or die' claims don't coincide with reality at any point.  Apart from virtually every sector of the economy issuing dire and repeated warnings of a no-deal Brexit disaster, we have the government's own Operation Yellowhammer assessment and new threats emerging every week.

A few days ago Priti Patel said she wants freedom of movement to end on October 31st but the government fears bringing their immigration bill forward will see it amended in parliament and used as a proxy for preventing a no deal Brexit. So it has to be done without a new immigration policy in place. Almost immediately the Institute for Government published an article explaining that:

"To do that [end FoM] in any meaningful way would cause major disruption – employers, citizens and universities are completely unprepared for this last-minute U-turn. On a practical level the plan is so close to impossible – if not entirely impossible – that one wonders whether the government is serious about making it work".

Apart from the obvious flaw that there is no way of differentiating between new EU immigrants and those who have settled here and are simply returning after a visit to Europe temporarily, using the existing non-EU immigration system is out of the question because they have to apply to visa processing centres in their country of origin, centres that don’t even exist in the EU!  No, it is impossible to end FoM on October 31st - or even for years afterwards.

And University College London have released a report warning of significant legal, economic and social disruption to the free flow of data between Europe and the UK, leaving companies across the finance, hospitality, manufacturing and technology sectors facing “immense” extra costs. A no-deal Brexit would 'instantly' put Britain's £174 billion a year digital data economy at risk.

Despite all of this, prime minister Johnson continues to be relaxed about it and according to The Telegraph, he is challenging critics of his “do or die” Brexit strategy by declaring Britain “can easily cope” with a no-deal scenario. After admitting that the chances of striking a deal with Brussels before the October 31 deadline were now "touch and go" he dismissed his own government's suggestions that leaving without an agreement would lead to food shortages

So, this is either dangerous complacency or he is actually gaslighting himself.

If you believe that a no-deal Brexit on October 31st is unthinkable (as I do) one has to prepare for the explosive announcement from government at some point that we will not be leaving on the date Johnson has staked so much of his reputation on.  What will happen then?

It will take a miracle for him to survive - whatever the result.