ComRes has carried out a poll for The Telegraph apparently showing a majority of people support proroguing parliament to prevent MPs blocking Brexit and if you look at the figures this does indeed seem to be the case. The full 141 pages of the rather complicated poll is HERE. The headline number given is 54% agree that Johnson (the poll calls him Boris throughout) "needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs from stopping it".
However, delving into the tables and the picture is not that clear and indeed might even be construed as the opposite.
Firstly, in table 53 the raw figures show 44% support the idea, 37% oppose it and fully 19% were don't knows. And note the question doesn't refer to a no-deal Brexit at all, only to an undefined 'Brexit'. As far as I know MPs are only trying to stop a no-deal Brexit. We don't know what the population thinks about MPs blocking a no-deal Brexit, even though this is central to the looming constitutional crisis, because that question wasn't even asked. Not surprisingly I might add.
So, although The Telegraph slant the article as if it's aimed at Dominic Grieve or Anna Soubry, in fact it is really aimed at the ERG, who have consistently blocked 'Brexit'.
Early in the poll there are some quite leading questions asking if Parliament
is out of touch with the British public (77% agree) or asking if on
Brexit, most MPs seem to ignore the wishes of voters and push their own agendas (79% agree with this). So,
having set up the respondents to an anti-MP/anti-parliament opinion the
pollster then goes on to ask about Brexit. It's hardly surprising that
some people felt MPs were the main stumbling block.
ComRes also asked how respondents voted in the 2016 referendum and the poll is slightly leave heavy at 53%-47%. Notable by its absence is the obvious question: How would you vote today? I assume this was omitted to save The Telegraph from embarrassment for it surely would have shown a majority are now opposed to it.
Bizzarrely, table 127 summarises the responses to various proposed impacts of a no-deal Brexit on October 31st. Respondents were asked if they were concerned or not about various situations.
Q.8 on this table asks: Are you concerned or not concerned about each of the following in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 31 st October 2019? In the summary (all respondents excluding don't knows) are these results:
Supplies of fresh food 57% - 43%
Supplies of medicines 65% - 35%
Cost of living increases 74% - 26%
By conflating Brexit with a no-deal Brexit, the poll throws up the interesting idea that amazingly, people do NOT want MPs in parliament to prevent problems with the supply of fresh food and medicine or avoid increases in the cost of living. I ask you is that likely to be the position in the minds of most people?
And then we come to the Irish border problem. Table 88 - Q.7 asks: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Brexit should be halted if problems over the Northern Ireland border threaten to split the Union (all respondents excluding don't knows) - 51% agreed with this, which is of course at the heart of the backstop issue.
Finally, on Johnson himself as some sort of unifying force, table 94 asks: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Boris Johnson cannot unify the country as Prime Minister of the UK (excluding don't knows) - 63% agreed with this. So, two thirds of the country think he's divisive.
So, although the poll got the headlines that The Telegraph were seeking, the results show nothing has really changed. On voting intentions, assuming you believe the Tories, UKIP and The Brexit Party are all in favour of Brexit, 48% of the population support them, while 52% support Labour, the LibDems, Change UK, the SNP and The Greens or 'other' parties.
In other words, a majority now oppose Brexit.
Update (12:40pm): I notice Peter Kellner has now responded to the poll (HERE) and I am very pleased to see he also thinks the poll was misleading - or 'out of the Sir Humphrey playbook' as he puts it. He also comes up with the same sort of reasoning - that the earlier questions 'tee-up' the later answers.
He also points to a earlier poll, also by ComRes, showing just 28% would be 'pleased' by a no-deal Brexit.
Update (12:40pm): I notice Peter Kellner has now responded to the poll (HERE) and I am very pleased to see he also thinks the poll was misleading - or 'out of the Sir Humphrey playbook' as he puts it. He also comes up with the same sort of reasoning - that the earlier questions 'tee-up' the later answers.
He also points to a earlier poll, also by ComRes, showing just 28% would be 'pleased' by a no-deal Brexit.
