I assume this morning officials are furiously going through the 268 pages of the Alternative Commission Report published back in July. This is supposed to form the basis of the 'frictionless' border protocol that might replace the backstop. Let me say here that there is zero prospect of this happening, regardless of what one of its authors, Greg Hands, is saying in The Daily Mail. Incidentally, the Mail claim the report is 272 pages long. It's actually 268 although the last page is numbered 274 - because various pages are missing (2, 6, 219, 220, 221, 224) for some odd reason. It's a demonstration of the whole slapdash effort.
The AAC report has no chance of success, at least in the very short term for all the reasons set out previously, namely that the British-Irish Chambers of Commerce trashed it. They said it was inadequate, unrealistic and lacked credibility. The cost of implementing it (put as high as £13 billion a year) was not even considered.
It will not work in the long term either. The report looked at a lot of borders around the world (US - Canada, Norway - Sweden, etc) but all the examples are of nations in some sort of free trade agreement where the direction of travel is to have converging regulatory standards. We are going in the opposite direction.
The report talks a lot about mutual recognition and in some areas (professional qualifications, conformity assessment) no doubt this is achievable. But MRA in goods will never be conceded by the EU to a third country and certainly not to one that intends to diverge from EU standards. It's Johnson's primary objective after all. It also exempts most small businesses (up to 10 employees) from the "multi-tier trusted trader programme which will apply only to large and medium sized companies. Thus 88% of businesses in Northern Ireland would be free to smuggle whatever they wanted across the border.
The EU may well say the AAC report (which even the authors admit needs more work and is only a 'conversation starter') could be examined in detail but this is not going to happen by October 31st and we are still left with the backstop (or another lengthy delay to the Article 50 process) as the only way of avoiding a hard border beginning November 1st.
Whichever way you look at it the backstop is the ONLY legally watertight mechanism for avoiding a hard border in Ireland and respecting the integrity of the single market - something which we claim to support - and is on the table ready for October 31st.
If the technical fixes are as 'abundant' as Johnson repeatedly claims we should have no problem accepting the backstop - because it will never be used. The EU called our bluff with it since it reveals we have no confidence a solution to the border issue will ever be found.
It is the immovable object on the road to Brexit and the Brexiteers know it. If we exit without a deal at the end of October we will be in no man's land. No trade deal with the EU in prospect and none with the USA either because the senate will not accept anything that undermines The Good Friday Agreement.
Johnson will very soon make a speech much like the one he gave when his first leadership bid had to be abandoned in 2016 - after Gove scuppered it. It will be much heralded, long winded with many verbal flourishes and right at the very end.....
"..... and that ladies and gentlemen (pause for effect) is why we cannot leave the EU on October 31st"
