There are bad weeks and there are very bad weeks. Theresa May used to have poor ones but she never had anything like the one Boris Johnson has had - so far, and let's remember it's not over yet. The return of parliament on Tuesday and his poorly received speech on the G7 summit was just the start. His majority is now down to -44, his strategy is in tatters and yesterday he came to Yorkshire after his brother resigned - and left with a bloody nose!
I missed his speech since I was outside Wakefield police headquarters waving an EU flag and singing anti-Brexit songs along with the RVC, as he went in. I am told it was an uneasy, rambling, awkward thing originally designed to launch his non-election campaign. The speech he had carefully prepared had to be abandoned and it was obvious he hadn't bothered to prepare a new one.
It was a disaster.
His former colleague at The Telegraph (HERE) called it "the most bizarre speech ever... and it was pure Alan Partridge."
He seemed distracted by his brother's resignation, an act surely deliberately timed to inflict the maximum possible damage to the PM. And Jo Johnson's comments that he could not square "family loyalty with the national interest" will be used in the forthcoming election campaign, you can be sure. It is no surprise to learn that Johnson senior had a long telephone call on Wednesday night trying to dissuade him. If your own flesh and blood don't trust you with the national interest what is left?
It seems this morning opposition parties will come together to cut any potential life-line Johnson has and prevent a general election taking place at least until he has been forced to ask the EU for a delay, and possibly until after November 1st. I think it was Napoleon who said never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake - advice which Corbyn would do well to remember. Sooner or later Johnson will be so far down it won't be necessary to kick him.
Johnson's options are narrowing. He must either ask for a delay - something he said yesterday he would die in a ditch rather than do (I live on very low lying farm land surrounded by dykes and if he wants to come round at any time I will happily oblige him) - or he must revoke Article 50 or resign. Surely these are his options?
Robert Peston thinks not. He claims Johnson will dare MPs to impeach him:
"The choice is between keeping his word or disobeying the law of the land. 'He can't sign the letter' said a Tory grandee and former Cabinet minister. 'He has to precipitate a very real constitutional crisis'.
"It has come to this! The party of law and order, the party set up to conserve property rights and ancient traditions, is giving serious consideration to flouting the law to execute what it perceives as the instruction of the British people in that referendum."
"It has come to this! The party of law and order, the party set up to conserve property rights and ancient traditions, is giving serious consideration to flouting the law to execute what it perceives as the instruction of the British people in that referendum."
Over in Brussels there is the glimmer of what Johnson's new proposals are but they seem designed as window dressing rather than serious ideas. More intended to be rejected by the EU so that all the blame for the ensuing no-deal Brexit chaos can be placed at the door of the EU27. Adam Fleming at the BBC tweeted:
Details have emerged of what David Frost asked for in Brussels yesterday after a briefing of EU27 diplomats by officials from the European Commission. Negotiators believe it amounted to bits of the Withdrawal Agreement crossed out NOT concrete proposals. (1)— Adam Fleming (@adamfleming) September 5, 2019
Reading the complete thread, Fleming claims the UK wants "the backstop radically reduced to include only the articles dealing with citizens rights, the single electricity market and the Common Travel Area. UK wants removal of articles 6-10 and 12 and associated annexes."
He adds that we are also demanding a "best in class" Free Trade Agreement along the lines of the EU/Canada but "minus any level playing field commitments and without the dispute resolution mechanism included in the Withdrawal Agreement."
This is the next place along from fantasy world. It's so far from what the EU could tolerate as to not even make it as a non-starter. Fleming says the words being used are:"exasperating" and "disastrous" and it isn't surprising.
I assumed Johnson had made an error this week in sacking the 21 rebels since these are the moderates who would be guaranteed to support whatever deal he returns from Brussels with. That he has done this while leaving the ERG, guaranteed to vote against, untouched, perhaps means that he always intended to take us over the edge anyway. Who knows?
Dominic Cummings is at the heart of all of it. But I understand he is becoming a hate figure on both wings of the Tory party. If he's still in Downing Street next week it would be a surprise to me.
I assumed Johnson had made an error this week in sacking the 21 rebels since these are the moderates who would be guaranteed to support whatever deal he returns from Brussels with. That he has done this while leaving the ERG, guaranteed to vote against, untouched, perhaps means that he always intended to take us over the edge anyway. Who knows?
Dominic Cummings is at the heart of all of it. But I understand he is becoming a hate figure on both wings of the Tory party. If he's still in Downing Street next week it would be a surprise to me.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has been forced to apologise for smearing an NHS consultant in the House of Commons. Dr David Nicholl, a neurologist involved in no-deal Brexit planning who blew the whistle on internal government reports he had helped to compile about drug shortages, had threatened to sue Ress-Mogg if he ever repeated the smears outside parliamentary privilege. Rees-Mogg is typical of the Brexiteers. Their hatred of the EU is visceral and any difficulties up to and including a few deaths is a price well worth paying to leave.
I also noted (HERE) that plans for three additional customs stations in Kent ahead of a
potential no-deal Brexit in six week's time would cause "more mayhem", Kent Council leader Paul Carter (Con) has warned.
This coincides with the publication of kent's no-deal Brexit planning which says:
The latest KCC Brexit report, the fourth of its kind, adds: "The
government is currently consulting on Special Development Orders for
sites at Ashford Truckstop and car park D at Ebbsfleet International
railway station.
"We have raised concerns that customs station should be predominantly
located outside of Kent and that the section of Ebbsfleet is less than
ideal, bearing in mind the current congestion levels. Despite
this, Kent's council officials have described its no-deal preparations
as 'sensible'and 'practical', saying the county council has been ready
for no-deal since the end of March.
"One of the main plans ready to
go live at 'short notice' is Operation Brock, which will enable Kent to
hold up to 12,000 goods vehicles in order to minimise disruption on
Kent's road and port network."
Note the government is "consulting" at the moment. We have six weeks. Do not expect anything operational before 2022 at the earliest.
Bismarck once noted that politics was the art of the possible. Brexit will soon be known as the art of the impossible.
