The man who came to office pledging not to negotiate until the EU had dropped the backstop altogether is off to Brussels today for talks with Jean Claude Juncker, their first meeting since Johnson became prime minister. It follows earlier visits to Berlin, Paris and Dublin. Note the backstop is still firmly in place. Reality seems to be slowly percolating through the multi-layered fantasy world that Johnson has created. But it has not yet reached home. We are now told he is "confident he is closing in on [a] Brexit deal".
This must have come as a complete surprise to EU negotiators and Juncker himself who told a German radio station only yesterday that "he still did not know what the British want in detail".
The PM is still writing his newspaper column (HERE) as if he's just a part-time prime minister fitting in the job of running the country and negotiating Brexit around his real job at The Daily Planet (aka The Telegraph) - a bit like Clark Kent.
No matter, a little more bizzarity is neither here nor there. The last few weeks has been an accelerated theatre of the absurd anyway, played out as a Brian Rix farce with Johnson, trousers slipping down, rushing around frantically trying all the doors that Mrs May tried to open with no more success than she had.
No matter, a little more bizzarity is neither here nor there. The last few weeks has been an accelerated theatre of the absurd anyway, played out as a Brian Rix farce with Johnson, trousers slipping down, rushing around frantically trying all the doors that Mrs May tried to open with no more success than she had.
The Telegraph report on his article and finish by quoting a Downing Street source:
"This is why the PM will stress to Mr Juncker that, while he wants to secure a deal, if no deal can be agreed by October 18 his policy is to leave without a deal on October 31 – and reject any delay offered by the EU.”
This is despite leaving without a deal effectively being against the law of the land and him our Prime Minister and First Lord of The Treasury, not a petty criminal (yet).
The report claims Johnson may resurrect the so-called Malthouse Compromise (aka in Brussels as the madhouse compromise) - voted down by MPs in March - which suggested working out alternative ways of avoiding a hard border in Ireland during a lengthy transition period. This is another firmly locked door that the EU will not open.
This is despite leaving without a deal effectively being against the law of the land and him our Prime Minister and First Lord of The Treasury, not a petty criminal (yet).
The report claims Johnson may resurrect the so-called Malthouse Compromise (aka in Brussels as the madhouse compromise) - voted down by MPs in March - which suggested working out alternative ways of avoiding a hard border in Ireland during a lengthy transition period. This is another firmly locked door that the EU will not open.
Meanwhile Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary has given an interview to John Pienaar, again reported in The Telegraph with an even more amazing and bizarre claim. According to The Telegraph:
"On getting a deal through Parliament by Oct 31, Mr Barclay said: 'The House can move quickly when it wants to and there’s many within Parliament that want to avoid a no deal.' He ruled out an Article 50 extension beyond the Halloween deadline even if a deal had been done and extra time was needed to get it through Parliament."
Think about this one. Barclay - apparently a sentient human being - says that if Johnson actually gets a deal but it does not go through parliament simply because there wasn't enough time, we would crash out anyway. In other words, if a majority of MPs back Johnson's deal but for some reason, as we approach 11 pm on October the 31st, it turns out another five minutes was needed to get it agreed the government would not allow it. Amazing, eh?
Barclay gives a peek into government thinking:
"Mr Barclay said part of the plan currently being worked on by the Government would involve all-Ireland trading arrangements which went 'beyond' the current island-wide checks on livestock, plants and agricultural produce which already equate to a border in the Irish Sea for some regulatory checks.
"He said the Northern Ireland Assembly - which has been suspended for almost three years - would need to be up and running by the end of any transition period in order to agree to any arrangements that meant Northern Ireland was treated differently from the rest of the UK."
Think about this one. Barclay - apparently a sentient human being - says that if Johnson actually gets a deal but it does not go through parliament simply because there wasn't enough time, we would crash out anyway. In other words, if a majority of MPs back Johnson's deal but for some reason, as we approach 11 pm on October the 31st, it turns out another five minutes was needed to get it agreed the government would not allow it. Amazing, eh?
Barclay gives a peek into government thinking:
"Mr Barclay said part of the plan currently being worked on by the Government would involve all-Ireland trading arrangements which went 'beyond' the current island-wide checks on livestock, plants and agricultural produce which already equate to a border in the Irish Sea for some regulatory checks.
"He said the Northern Ireland Assembly - which has been suspended for almost three years - would need to be up and running by the end of any transition period in order to agree to any arrangements that meant Northern Ireland was treated differently from the rest of the UK."
Finally, a third Telegraph article reports Remainer MPs are "secretly plotting to revoke Article 50 and stop the UK leaving the European Union at the end of next month".
In this piece, Joe Moor, a former director of legislative affairs at No 10, said Mr Johnson "could suspend Parliament again after the Queen’s Speech". He is quoted directly:
“Should the Prime Minister decide to flout the law and resist the obligation to seek an extension [during a second prorogation] Parliament would be powerless without further – unprecedented – interventions from the Speaker.
“Recall is at the behest of ministers and the courts would have to interfere, by which time it’s possible Brexit would have happened.”
A Government insider apparently confirmed that a 'double prorogation' was a technical option, but it would be "controversial" (an understatement if ever there was one) so probably won't be used.
“Should the Prime Minister decide to flout the law and resist the obligation to seek an extension [during a second prorogation] Parliament would be powerless without further – unprecedented – interventions from the Speaker.
“Recall is at the behest of ministers and the courts would have to interfere, by which time it’s possible Brexit would have happened.”
A Government insider apparently confirmed that a 'double prorogation' was a technical option, but it would be "controversial" (an understatement if ever there was one) so probably won't be used.
It now looks as if Johnson, assuming he is still prime minister - and the odds are shortening on this, will come back from Brussels sometime in the next few weeks and try the final door once again. This is the one marked 'get a parliamentary majority'. Despite noises to the contrary, I suspect he is going to fail.
The ERG are going to look mighty ridiculous if they vote for May's deal, regardless of what extra trimmings it might have attached to it. The backstop will still be in place because the EU along with everybody else, simply don't trust Johnson. His public utterances on regulatory divergence have made the backstop even more necessary, and his habit of swinging wildly between extreme options can't have helped.
When he spoke of coming out of the EU by Halloween "do or die" the hardmen of the ERG never expected him to conceded everything, capitulate and have a go at pushing May's deal through parliament again. First the 'bloody difficult woman' and now Johnson turn out to be weapons that have turned against them.
The ERG will surely never accept May's deal. They will lose all credibility. Labour will still say it's too vague. The 21 rebels will probably try and attach amendments to give a people's vote on it. A few more Labour rebels might vote for the deal and the margin might be closer than it was on 30th March (58, 344-286) but I do not foresee it passing.
Would it give him an electoral boost? I doubt it. The Brexit party would oppose him on the grounds that it wasn't a 'clean Brexit' and in the last polling I saw only about 7% thought May's deal was a good one. The Tories are in a lose-lose-lose situation on Brexit.
