BREXIT TALKS GO INTO REVERSE

After hopes were raised in the last couple of days that an imminent  breakthrough was on the way, last night we got a bucket of cold water when Sky News broke the story that the non papers we had submitted had not been well received.  Overnight most of the press have picked up comments by EU diplomats that our proposals do not go far enough, with one saying the negotiations are actually 'going backwards'.

It didn't help matters that the EU were apparently told not to share our 'confidential' non papers with other EU member states, thus confirming once more that after 45 years we still don't understand how the EU works. There has always been a belief that Brussels and the Commission 'rule' the member states like a Soviet era Politburo and it really is a powerful superstate in its own right. Asking them to keep our ideas (or a reflection of what might look like an idea from a distance) secret is akin to asking a civil servant in Whitehall to keep vital correspondence from ministers.

Sky reported that our 'ideas' did not actually meet ANY of the objectives that were needed to replace the backstop. They did not avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, did not protect the all-island economy and north-south co-operation or preserve the integrity of the single market.

The new 'ideas' we tabled were apparently just a rehash of old ideas already rejected by the EU as unworkable.

One begins to wonder if we even know what we're doing.

We are now back to late 2017 with the Joint Report or late 2018 with May's deal. Hopes are raised only to be dashed before being raised again. Nobody knows if we are negotiating seriously or simply running down the clock as a way of forcing the issue in both Brussels and Westminster. It is a terrible mess which is trashing our international reputation for sensible diplomacy and pragmatism.

I have no idea if anything meaningful can be rescued at all but I am quite certain the October 19th deadline - now just four weeks away - cannot be met and I expect Johnson to be forced to write a letter asking for another extension.

Away from all this speculation I noticed Michel Barnier gave a speech to the EU parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday where he talked about the Irish backstop and the future relationship which he called the two key points.  The backstop problem is being well covered and may well break the talks but I also noted the next looming difficulty for the UK.

These are Barnier's words (the emphases are all in the original):

The Political Declaration that we agreed with the United Kingdom last November opens the possibility for a wide-ranging partnership, in economic affairs, sectoral cooperation, police and judicial cooperation, and cooperation in defence and foreign affairs.

On the economic side of things, this partnership has as a starting point a free trade agreement but it leaves the door open to a more ambitious partnership, if there is common will power to do so. We are willing to be as ambitious as possible, for example through a customs union.

This economic relationship must obviously be accompanied by level playing field guarantees.

There again, ladies and gentlemen, Members of Parliament, behind the technical expression “level playing field”, there are human, social and territorial realities. The United Kingdom needs to make a societal choice as to the necessary balance between the right level of regulation and the market place.

The current British government is rowing back on the commitments made by Theresa May when it comes to level playing field guarantees. 

An ambitious economic partnership with a big, important and close country like the United Kingdom, which carries out half of its trade with us, requires a common set of rules. The level of ambition of a future free trade agreement – which we will have to negotiate and conclude with the United Kingdom in any event – will clearly depend on the social, environment, competition and state aid guarantees that we put down together on paper.

Note also, the 'level playing field' and 'common set of rules'.  These will be the next set of rocks that we must navigate. If Johnson's ambition is to diverge from EU rules as he has publicly declared he will find not a Canada +++ but a very basic FTA with far more limited access to European markets - even if we ever reach an agreement at all.  And given the way we have conducted matters so far, if a Tory government is elected again we can look forward to at least ten more years of wrangling.

The EU will never allow a 'big, important and close country like the United Kingdom' to become a Singapore on Thames and enjoy a close trading relationship with the EU27.  

This will be the next big decision - assuming a WA is ever passed and that's certainly not guaranteed.