Monday 30 September 2019

JOHNSON'S TROUBLES CONTINUE TO PILE UP

In my entire life I cannot remember anyone, in any walk of life, facing so many extremely grave personal and political difficulties on so many different fronts, as Boris Johnson. He has made himself a lightning rod for bolts from the blue. Last night The i News reported a source claiming the Queen "asked her aides for the first time for clarification on just when and how she could dismiss a prime minister who refuses to step aside."

Let's not forget he became the 14th PM to serve Queen Elizabeth II on July 24th this year. She had 13 before him over 67 blemish free years since first acceding to the throne in February 1952, and not one (as far as we know) caused her to do something even slightly erroneous, let alone declared unlawful by a high profile court case on the most contentious issue that has racked the nation for years.

Johnson sullies everything he touches - even the monarchy, and he's managed it after just two months in office.

He is said to have apologised to her, although he won't publicly admit it, and now we learn the Queen, who presumably has never had to think about such a thing before, sought advice on sacking him before the Supreme Court judgement was delivered last Tuesday. What a scoundrel.

Apart from that, The Jennifer Arcuri story continues with more allegations in The Sunday Times that the entrepreneur and model told friends she was in a relationship with Johnson. He says not and she has disappeared on holiday to avoid reporters. The Sunday Times article intriguingly claims:

"A detailed description of the alleged sexual affair was provided by another source who spoke to this newspaper last month about Johnson’s visits to Arcuri’s flat in the afternoons while he was mayor. We have seen written evidence that supports the claim."

The 'written evidence' is not disclosed but I assume it will be eventually and that this sentence is to deter Johnson from thinking about suing.  According to the article the scandal is now the subject of four official investigations. 

As if this wasn't enough,  two female journalists have come out to say he squeezed their legs as they sat either side of him at a boozy lunch when he was editor of The Spectator twenty years ago. Michael Fallon and Damain Green were forced to resign over similar allegations, but since Johnson is prime minister, it's not clear who would force him to step down.

Separately, The Sunday Times report that a rebel alliance of MPs in the House is planning to impeach Johnson for illegally proroguing parliament and he is also likely to face a vote of confidence at some point in the next few weeks - assuming he survives being impeached.

Amidst all this the Tories are apparently 12 points ahead in the polls with Johnson being seen as the best prime minister by 37% to Corbyn's 16%. What does this tell us about ourselves and about the Labour leader?

We are led to believe 'concrete' proposals for the alternative backstop are to be unveiled by the government this week - on Thursday I assume after the party conference so there are no unpleasant scenes - with the Irish again warning that time is running out.  Arlene Foster says she would consider a time limited backstop at the same time saying she knows Ireland wouldn't entertain it, in which case why suggest it?  The EU have already rejected the idea anyway.

And if Johnson thinks a separate customs territory for NI would be acceptable to the DUP he should read this from Arlene.

It should be said the DUP have less power than before since Johnson can only muster 288 MPs now and even 10 Democratic Unionists only brings it to 298, still 46 votes short (44 in practice because although Charlie Elphicke has lost the whip he is likely to support the government).

What rabbit of alternative arrangement is to be pulled from the hat fully formed and agreeable to all sides including MPs is not at all obvious.

The Tory party conference heard from a German MP who said he was 'gloomy' about the prospects of a deal and that he did not believe the EU would change its position - and more importantly - they were unlikely to change even if there was a change of government in the UK. In other words, even in Johnson won a landslide it wouldn't make any difference.

Did they believe him?  Probably not.

This week is going to be absolutely pivotal.  Hand on to your hats.