The Brexit Secretary, Stephen Barclay has said we are nearing the moment of truth, which will be an uncomfortable place for the famously mendacious Boris Johnson and the other Brexiteers. In fact, the jaws of defeat are closing around them. All the pre-referendum lies have proved untrue and the bluster about the UK not being a supplicant and getting a good deal because German car makers and Italian Prosecco suppliers would pressurise their negotiators has come to naught. Next week will be that moment.
Barclay told the BBC that Britain finally intends to put 'concrete proposals' to the EU after the party conference next week. This will almost certainly be a NI only backstop - the one Theresa May said no British PM could ever accept. Johnson will prove himself to be even weaker than his predecessor, which is why the proposals will have to wait until after his moment of glory in front of the soon-to-be-disappointed faithful on Wednesday.
Following Barclay's meeting in Brussels with Michel Barnier, the Commission released a short, terse 66 word statement which said they were "willing to examine any workable and legally operative proposals" to replace the backstop. In the time available the ONLY 'legally operative' proposal is the WA as it stands or one which only covers NI and not the whole UK. As far as getting a 'new' deal this is as good as it gets.
It will prove entirely unacceptable to the DUP and the ERG and Johnson's leadership will will be at an end.
Another long-standing fantasy prop, the idea of a 'managed' no-deal, was kicked away yesterday when the government released copies of letters exchanged between Barclay and Barnier before their meeting. Barclay's letter of September 25th is a civil service masterclass in how to conceal your own panic and fears while begging for some vital concession.
One does not need to be clairvoyant to see how desperate we are.
Barclay casually slips in that "both sides" need to prepare citizens and business for the possibility of a no deal Brexit and that "we" (i.e. both sides) need "either to improve our mutual readiness or put in place practical mitigations that work for us both". How many redrafts did that phrase have? You can almost see the beads of sweat on his forehead and quivering hand as he topped and tailed the letter.
We also want to conduct "prudent bi-lateral discussions" with member states who want to "address risks pertaining to their own arrangements". This is a selfless offer to protect some of the EU27 and nothing to do with helping ourselves of course.
If the Brexit Secretary thought this had the slightest chance of success Barnier's reply (undated but released yesterday after the meeting and I think sent the day before) was unequivocal:
"We will not enter into any negotiations with the United Kingdom on these matters"
Barnier is clear that all the areas in Barclays letter are already addressed "comprehensively" in the Withdrawal agreement and "there is no other way" to achieve all the benefits the WA provides.
The gloves are off.
This heaps yet more pressure on Johnson. The no-deal chasm is approaching fast. If he does not want to risk breaking the law (the Benn law that is - there are so many others aren't there?) the only options are either a delay or May's deal pertaining to NI only. It's the choice between arsenic and strychnine.
Robert Peston thinks Johnson will go for a delay, abandon the October 31st deadline and use the extra three months to hold a general election. If by the time this happens, he has revealed his NI only alternative to the backstop Farage will accuse him of pushing through a "re-heated " version of May's deal and will field candidates against him in every constituency, guaranteeing defeat.
Meanwhile, the former Attorney General Dominic Grieve suspects the government might be tempted to invoke the Civil Contingencies Act, declare a state of emergency because of the risk of civil disorder and suspend the Benn law. This would allow us to sail nicely off the edge and into a no-deal void from where we will be calling on the EU for a rope to haul ourselves out again.
Assuming the yellowhammer documents are correct, it would be using the risk of a state of emergency to bring about another state of emergency. Don't laugh, in these bizarre Brexit times this is actually being discussed.
Finally, Johnson's week was completed by somebody referring him to the police over the Jennifer Arcuri affair for misconduct in a public office during his time as mayor of London. This has all the hallmarks of a Jeffrey Archer/Jonathan Aitken episode and I want us all to pray tonight that the Right Honourable member for Uxbridge, the Prime Minister and First Lord of The Treasury, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson gets to see the inside of HM prison at some point in the future.
How satisfying would that be?
