Johnson lost his first ever parliamentary vote as prime minister yesterday as well as his majority in an utterly humiliating blow to his scorched earth policy. The rebels were confident of winning but I think even they were surprised at the margin. Twenty one Tory MPs rebelled and in an act of petty vindictiveness by the prime minister, they will lose the party whip. Thus he is now about 44 votes short of a majority in parliament. The Cummings designed strategy was flawed from the very beginning and he is back to square one but in a far worse position than Mrs May.
Even as he was making his opening statement about the G7 summit in Biarritz, he lost his majority when Phillip Lee crossed the floor and defected to the Lib Dems. It went downhill from there.
Using the threat of leaving without a deal worked spectacularly well - but only with opposition MPs and the 21 rebels. The EU have been entirely unmoved by it all and have actually stepped up contingency planning for a no deal exit. Rory Stewart, one of the rebels, claimed this morning that 30-40 other Tory MPs would have joined them had it not been for solemn assurances from Johnson that he would never actually leave with no deal. I don't believe he will either.
These other potential rebels didn't seem worried about Johnson's reputation as an untrustworthy, dishonest liar. Unfortunately, for him plenty of others did.
Ed Vaizey, another rebel said what persuaded him was being lectured by cabinet members who were serial rebels under Cameron and May and were now in cabinet. I watched a lot of yesterday's debate and the arrogance of Gove, Johnson and Ress-Mogg struck exactly the wrong tone. Corbyn appeared calmly prime ministerial compared to the finger jabbing fury and nervous machine-gun delivery of the soon-to-be-ejected occupant of No 10.
It was a rebellion that grew during a badly handled day and resulted in big defeat. Today, when the bill itself is debated, will probably go the same way.
The DUP's 10 MPs are now a very expensive and useless appendage.
I lost count of the number of opposition MPs who asked the prime minister and leader of the House if they would abide by the law if the bill gets on to the statute book. This was provoked by earlier reports coming out of Downing Street that they would ignore it or refuse to obtain Royal assent, as well as Gove's answer at the weekend that they would see what the bill said first. I confess I never thought that a British government would have to be asked if they would obey the law. Strange times indeed.
Johnson's crew give far more weight to the narrow result of an advisory referendum three years ago, which must be obeyed come what may, than they do to the law of the land.
The PM's response to the defeat was to tell MPs he would call a vote today on a general election. But under the fixed term act he needs a two thirds majority - about 429 MPs - to support him and the Lib Dems and Labour have already said they will only do that if the anti no-deal bill gets through and onto the statute book.
Having said a number of times he would never ask for an extension he will either have to do it, resign or revoke Article 50. He is skewered.
Cummings' cunning plan was to prepare a social media blitz ready for an election as well as launching a spending review, aka opening the purse strings wide and pouring public money into popular things like the NHS, education and policing. Chancellor Javid is to make a speech later today outlining all of this but without the election.
Incidentally, this is another flaw. If the Tories think they can win any election by outspending Labour they have another think coming.
Among the MPs who risk deselection are Ken Clarke, Father of the House and Conservative MP since 1970 and Churchill's grandson Nicholas Soames. These are men with long records of loyal support for successive Tory governments. Johnson voted against May's deal twice without reprimand yet when the tables are turned, his reaction is to sack all 21 rebels. Shocking or what?
The New York Times thinks the Conservative party is on the brink of civil war and I think this is true.
