A spokesman for the government has ruled out an extension to the transition period (Theresa May used to refer to it as the implementation period) which we will enter on 1st February next year - assuming Johnson wins a majority in the election. It means we leave the EU orbit on December 31st 2020. Do not be fooled. This is for the domestic political plate, just like Johnson's do or die pledge when he first came to office.
Liz Truss, the hapless International Trade Secretary, confirmed it when she tweeted "We will not be extending the Brexit transition period beyond 2020. The British people have waited long enough for Brexit. We will be able to negotiate a good free trade deal with the EU and other partners in that timeframe."
Truss has learned nothing in her short time at DIT. An eleven month period is out of the question. As our old friend Sir Ivan Rogers told a Chinese news outlet recently:
"[Johnson's] people are saying we can do a complete free trade negotiation and have it done in 2020 and ratified by the end of 2020 so that we leave at the end of a transition period on Dec. 31 2020. This is a complete fantasy and there's an absolutely zero chance of this happening,"
Truss has learned nothing in her short time at DIT. An eleven month period is out of the question. As our old friend Sir Ivan Rogers told a Chinese news outlet recently:
"[Johnson's] people are saying we can do a complete free trade negotiation and have it done in 2020 and ratified by the end of 2020 so that we leave at the end of a transition period on Dec. 31 2020. This is a complete fantasy and there's an absolutely zero chance of this happening,"
David Allen Green at the Law and Policy blog points out the many legal issues in this 'plan', including that it was first proposed in November last year. He says what was a "a generous-ish transition period of nearly two years will, come a departure on 31 January 2020, a far tighter period of just eleven months."
Adding, "There is no reason to believe that the UK is now in a better position to achieve in eleven months what it expected to achieve in nearly two years."
Johnson began his premiership with a lie and is beginning his attempt at getting a new term in exactly the same way. We have eleven months to negotiate, agree, ratify and prepare to implement what most people think will be the most complex trade and security agreement ever. It is a fantasy but, as Mr Allen Green points out, after we leave, the Article 50 process ends and even though the WA gives the opportunity to extend the transition by another two years, he thinks the EU will find it legally difficult to offer an further extension at all. So, we have the ultimate hard deadline of December 31st 2022.
We have to agree on the extended transition by July 1st next year so another six months of will-he-won't-he is coming up (assuming he's still in office).
To show the depths to which Johnson's party has sunk as far as being truthful is concerned, even before the campaigns get properly underway, we discover the Tories 'doctored' a clip of Kier Starmer on GMB to make it appear as if he was stumped by a question. They then posted it on social media. Several news outlets reported the obvious faking but was there an apology? Not on your life.
As Mike Galsworthy tweeted:
A press office at Conservative Central office simply doubled down and was still claiming the "car crash interview" (the one they faked) really did take place. This sort of thing is worthy of Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi minister for propaganda, who is alleged to have said, "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." It is all very dangerous and can only erode public trust in our political class even further.“Believe it or not, this car crash interview did really take place” you say...— Mike Galsworthy (@mikegalsworthy) November 5, 2019
This has something of ‘the boy who cried wolf’ to it, after you were caught faking that video... https://t.co/QiUlaRi7L0
We also learned that the report by the Commons Intelligence and Security Committee will not see the light of day until next year after No 10 blocked its publication. Dominic Grieve tabled an urgent question yesterday, the last day of this parliament, but got no answer on why the government didn't want the public to see it. This is Grieve:
"I ask the Minister [Chris Pincher], how is it that the Prime Minister has claimed, through the No. 10 spokesman, that there must be further delays for consultation about national security, when the agencies themselves indicated publicly this morning, in response to journalistic inquiries, that publication will not prejudice the discharge of their functions? So for what purpose is the Prime Minister still considering it? It certainly cannot be the risk to national security, as the agencies themselves have said that there is none."
He got no answer. The Washington Examiner speculates that there are two reasons why Johnson does not want the report out before the election. Firstly, it will show while there may have been no direct links, Putin "has long viewed Brexit as a way to fragment the Anglo-American strategic relationship with the European Union. Putin believes that it weakens NATO and bolsters the voices of Russia's European allies." In other words Putin likes Brexit, wants Brexit and has probably encouraged Brexit.
Secondly, they, "suspect that the report offers documentation of Russian efforts to buy political influence. Westminster politics already involve concerning interactions between Russian agents and pro-Putin oligarchs on the one hand and British politicians on the other. And the Conservative Party has spent the past 10 years enjoying the benefits of Russian expatriate money."
Some of this money (about £1.2 millon) came from Alexander Temerko, including £33,800 to our very own Nigel Adams. This story is not going away and may well play a crucial role in the election campaign. I wonder if a leaked copy of the report might find its way into the press?
Finally, on the first day of the campaign proper I want to record the current state of the polls. According to Electoral Calculus the Tories are on their way to a 76 seat majority:
This prediction is based on opinion polls from 1st Oct 2019 to 25th Oct 2019, sampling 11,304 people. The prediction is heavily caveated:
There are three main factors which could change this prediction: pollster error, campaign swing and tactical voting. The pollsters have got it wrong before, and they can't all be right now because there are big disagreements between them. Some pollsters see Labour doing much better, with ComRes measuring the Conservative lead at just 4pc which would translate into another hung parliament. Conversely, Opinium measured the lead at a chunky 16pc which would give a Conservative landslide. The truth is probably somewhere between those extremes, but it could be nearer one end than the other.
The power of campaign swing was also demonstrated in 2017. The initial Conservative lead dwindled as Labour ran a strong campaign and Theresa May led a weak one. Labour are hoping that something similar happens again. That's not guaranteed, since Boris Johnson has a better track record of campaigning, but it can't be ruled out.
By the 13th December we will have seen what tactical voting can do - or not. Fingers crossed.
