We had yet another example of our national decline yesterday when the man appointed prime minister by members of one of our major political parties, and presently leading in the polls, demonstrated that he doesn't have the faintest idea what he's doing. On Thursday he visited a crisp manufacturer in Northern Ireland (described as an ass to the wind visit) and afterwards, in answer to a direct question, told businessmen that there will be no checks on goods going from NI to GB after Brexit. Needless to say he was wrong.
Lewis Goodall at Sky got a short video of the moment:
NEW: I’ve obtained the full video of PM yesterday. In it he is asked point blank if any NI>GB trade will be subject to customs declarations. PM: “You will absolutely not. If anyone asks you to do that tell them to ring up the PM and I’ll direct them to put that for in the bin.” pic.twitter.com/qwxdivCCor— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 8, 2019
The video is worth watching because Johnson appears to be three sheets to the wind. In fact he looks a lot like that other Boris, the late Mr Yeltsin, who frequently appeared 'tired and emotional' in public. Anyway, Johnson seemed to contradict what Stephen Barclay had told a Commons Select Committee (even he got it wrong the first time) and following a bit of research and checking (there are some good journalists left) Goodall tweeted again:
An EU official tells my colleague @skynewsmichelle: “We would refer you to our Q&A where we say that ‘NI will continue to apply the Union's Customs Code...The UCC includes pre-departure declarations and export formalities.’”— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 8, 2019
The corollary of pre-departure declarations and export formalities, is that there will have to be checks - otherwise nobody will bother to make the declarations anyway. In other words, Johnson didn't understand the deal he has signed us up to. I wonder what else he doesn't understand. One thing is the complexity and difficulty of getting a free trade agreement with the EU.
Simon Nixon at The Times put his finger on the problem in an article (£) on Thursday. It's behind a paywall but this is the key paragraph:
"In this respect [having our cake and eating it] Mr Johnson resembles no one so much as his predecessor, Theresa May, who continued to claim that Britain would have finalised a full free trade deal with the EU before the end of the two-year Article 50 process long after it had become obvious that this was delusional. Like Mrs May, Mr Johnson is making the fundamental error of assuming that just because London and Brussels will begin a future trade negotiation from a position of full alignment, negotiating a deal will be easy. This entirely misunderstands the nature of the challenge that the prime minister has set himself. Britain already has the deepest and most comprehensive trading arrangement with the EU that exists between any two sovereign nations. So his task is not to negotiate a better deal but a worse one — and to do so in a way that minimises the damage to businesses and the economy."
This is comparable to a trade union going in to a wage negotiation to argue for a pay cut for their members who are expecting an increase.
It will be an unusual negotiation to say the least. The government will be in the awkward position of trying to sell this new trade deal, not on the basis of an immediate boost to earnings and the economy, but as a step towards some distant prospect of the chance of a possible improvement, if all goes well, at some unspecified time in the future. In the meantime though, we must all take a pay cut. OK brothers let's have a show of hands. Who is in favour......
I suspect it will not go down well.
An indication of the future problem comes in the form of some work by Bloomberg (HERE) looking at the potential damage to our dominant service sector, which represents 80% of the economy and has a trading surplus with the EU27:-
Everything except the telecom, computer and information sector takes a big hit. Financial services particularly, with a near £14 billion drop in exports.
I think this will be the developing story in the coming years (assuming we can't persuade a lot of voters they have been duped) as the economy begins to peel away south towards the x axis and politicians and media owners of the right, who have consistently argued for Brexit, will have to convince voters that something better is always just around the corner and over the next horizon, rather like the Communists in Russia for sixty years. The British public may not be quite so forgiving or patient - unless we get to a police state.
I note also that Farage is coming under a bit of pressure to soften his stance on an electoral pact with him now offering an alliance. Not in return for dropping the deal altogether, as he first suggested, but simply for an agreement not to extend the transition period. He actually wants the provision for any extension removed from the text but I suspect he will soon forget that too.
The Brexit Party's stance is starting to look ridiculous. Farage himself is accused of being the only may who can STOP Brexit happening by denying Johnson a majority. Even members of his 'party' selected as candidates are starting to defect to the Tories. I expect there will be a pact within the next few days. Aaron Banks is now supporting the Tories so it is just a matter of time.
How will the pro-remain parties react?
There will surely be huge pressure on Labour and the LibDems to come to a pact themselves or the remain vote will be hopelessly split and Johnson will get a comfortable majority.
We may then be looking at a single issue election.
