Saturday 23 November 2019

Johnson stumbles, Corbyn remains neutral

Last night's debate was better than the ITV one earlier in the week but not much. It only served to show what uniquely poor leaders the three main parties have at the moment. Johnson looked like a hunted man as he stamped off the stage walking like a farm labourer and dressed like a scarecrow. The format was spectacularly unsuitable for him. He is happiest facing TV hosts or other politicians where he can smirk his way out of difficulty.  Last night's audience were surprisingly knowledgeable and were not easily placated.

After a shambolic, stuttering, spluttering performance he demonstrated he is totally unfit to sit on a parish council. His grasp of detail is zero.  Corbyn looked the better man in my opinion.

Professor Chris Grey writes a very good blog on Brexit, which I recommend everyone should read. His most recent post, published yesterday morning, included some excellent advice to Jeremy Corbyn. Instead of looking indecisive about which side of the Labour deal/Remain he would campaign on, he should say clearly he would be neutral in order to govern afterwards and reunite the country.  

Barely had the BBC leader's debate got under way when Jeremy Corbyn took Grey's advice and said, for the first time as far as I know, that he would indeed remain neutral.  The clarification was the lead item on the news afterwards and I think it gives him a bit of cover for the few weeks at least.

Corbyn came across better than before and he does not seem to me to be the despot that the billionaires backing Johnson want you to think he is.

Nicola Sturgeon came out of it best. She was every inch the politician, very cool and assured. No wonder the Scots wants independence when they look at what they're shackled to.  As for Jo Swinson she had the most difficult time by far - although why anyone thinks she is going to revoke Article 50 'unilaterally' is hard to fathom. A majority would have to vote for her before she could do it.

In a BBC post-debate discussion, one man said the government had been paralysed by Brexit over the last three years and he thought this was a one issue election - I assume he was a leaver who believed Johnson will 'get Brexit done'. A vote for the Tories is a vote for ten more years of paralysis, austerity, division and argument.  One almost felt sorry for him.  Wait till he finds out.

Just a short post this morning since I'm off to Pudsey where I hope about 14 People's Vote volunteers will swell the canvassing team for Labour's Jane Aitchison. Should be good.

I want to leave you with some polling by IPSOS-Mori: Long term trend shows decreasing concern over economy, unemployment, rise of Brexit

On Brexit we find this:

"In October 2019, 63% saw Brexit and the EU as one of the most important issues facing Britain. This is a 2,000% increase compared to October 2009 (3%)."

The Lisbon Treaty was signed by the EU member states on 13 December 2007, and entered into force on 1 December 2009.  Yet during the negotiations and through the period of ratification it barely registered on the charts at all. Just 3 people in a hundred thought Europe was an important issue.  Now it's 63%. 

Immigration had been higher earlier in the decade as this chart shows:



And non-EU immigration has always been higher anyway. So what prompted it?  The financial crash had occurred in 2008 but the impact really began to ripple through the economy around 2009 and in 2010 the Conservatives, in coalition with the LibDems came to power and a period of severe cut-backs started, a period which continues to this day.

I think this shows, not for the first time, what a determined bunch of extremists can do to channel anger over one thing (austerity) into blame for something entirely unrelated (the EU). 

Many of the serious Brexiteers in the House of Commons are in Banking of one sort or another. The EU was a convenient lightning rod to safely capture criticism of their industry and themselves perhaps towards something they had always hated anyway.