Friday 15 November 2019

Johnson stumbles on his gaffe-strewn journey back to No 10

The NHS is always a contentious issue in a general election but figures released yesterday showing  waiting times and lists at record levels catapulted it to the front and centre of the campaign. After nine years of having a tourniquet applied to its spending needs, the health service looks like it needs urgent treatment itself. In parts it appears close to collapse and this is before the annual winter crisis. What things will be like next month must be keeping Tory campaign managers in a permanent state of nervous anxiety.

How ironic that the £350 million a week lie from nearly four years ago was about the very service now on its knees for lack of money.  

It comes as there are signs that Johnson's celebrated campaigning ability seems to be deserting him - assuming he ever had any.  I am not sure he did. His supporters thought his jovial TV image would automatically translate into leading a strong campaign but he is starting to look like the second Conservative prime minister in succession to find events in an election a bit beyond their ability to control.  

The New York Times reports that when "exposed to hostile voices on the campaign trail, he has seemed at times unsure, tone deaf and gaffe prone. It could leave an opening for the underdog Labour Party."

Apart from the NHS falling down around him, his slow reaction to the floods and having to cancel a visit to a bakery because of 'security concerns' surrounding a few protesters, he went off to Bristol on the campaign trail but the local newspaper reports that he failed to meet a single member of the public.   The Belfast Telegraph reported that it was a 'difficult day' for the prime minister and indeed it was.  Even his big announcement of another £20 billion for the NHS (£350 million a week) went down like a damp squib when Labour trounced it with a promise of even more money.

This kind of publicity cannot be bought and Labour must be thanking their lucky stars to be gifted such a bumbling opponent, especially when their own leader is almost as dire.

The Conservative party thought they were on to a winner with the 'bloody difficult' Theresa May but she turned out to be a dud, losing their majority and negotiating what was generally regarded as a bad deal with the EU.  Johnson was appointed to replace her and is going exactly the same way, albeit in reverse. He's negotiated an even worse deal and could well end up losing his own seat in Uxbridge (he halved his own majority in 2017) and with another hung parliament.

I have not even mentioned the blocked ISC report into Russian interference where a concerted social media campaign will kick off this weekend to try and force Johnson to release it.  The Sydney Morning Herald report a meeting held in Millbank yesterday at the right wing Henry Jackson think tank with some high-profile Putin critics. The piece is titled: 'Something rotten': Putin critics lay into Johnson over Russia report.  I don't see this reported anywhere in the British media by the way, but I may be wrong. In it, Russian opposition leader Vladimir Kara-Murza relays a conversation he had with a British MP in 2016 who "berated him, asking why the City of London should jeopardise millions of pounds in investments from Russians because of 'hearsay'."

"His face turned all red, like my tie here and he started shouting across the table something to the tune of 'how dare you, why should we follow your advice? Why should we do this? Why should we deprive the City of London of millions of pounds in profits over some human rights hearsay?' " Kara-Murza told an astonished, packed room at Millbank Tower.

Mr Kara-Murza said that Putin's greatest export to the West was corruption via oligarchs sinking their money in London and other Western cities.

"This was only possible where the other side was willing to accept its importation", he said.

Asked by The Sydney Morning Herald about Johnson's refusal to publish the ISC's report into Russian interference, Kara-Murza said that, when someone hides something, it means they have something to hide.  How true.

If you want to know why the report is being blocked I suggest this is at least part of the answer. The stakes are too high for many wealthy people

Johnson is still leading in the polls but is stumbling on his gaffe strewn way to December 12th. I notice Sir John Curtice likens Johnson to a Ming vase, valuable until he falls on the floor. Election campaigns are often chaotic with unforeseeable outcomes anyway. This one will be unpredictable in spades.  27 days to go, keep the faith.

Incidentally, I went to help the Labour party campaign in Pudsey on Wednesday, joining other volunteers in some door-to-door canvassing, something I confess I've never done before. It was hugely enjoyable, quite apart from meeting a lot of wonderful people including John, who was my mentor for a few doors until I was confident enough to do the initial introduction myself. I must say it was all very positive.  Stuart Andrew, the sitting Conservative MP has a very small majority (331 or 0.7%) and with a bit of effort Jane Aitchison, a local candidate, might just be able to unseat him.

More campaigning this weekend.