Polling: is Johnson the new Pied Piper?

A huge polling exercise by YouGov, who incidentally accurately forecast the result of the 2017 election, has Johnson winning a 68 seat majority on December 12th. If this is indeed what happens we are looking at the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom both as an entity and a serious country. All elections are important but this one is crucial to deciding the kind of nation we want to be both, literally and metaphorically, after Brexit.

Let's think about what such a result means. You have to pinch yourself to believe it's even a remote possibility.

The Tories have overseen a decade of austerity, cutting public services and seeing real wages stagnate for the longest period since the 1860s.

Brexit is expected to deliver at best a slower growing economy and at worst  a serious shock which will see GDP fall by 6.7% (around £140 billion) a year by 2030 even with an EU-UK free trade deal. This will have an impact on tax revenues and public spending and borrowing. A new period of austerity and wage stagnation is being ushered in.

The Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Johnson was a humiliating retreat back to the EU's first offer which both May and Johnson said no prime minister could ever accept. It will create a border down the Irish sea and lead to the breakup of the UK.

Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU. Brexit is driving independence towards a gleeful SNP.  Even Wales is now talking about an independence referendum.

The Tory prime minister is widely seen as a morally bankrupt buffoon, a cheat and a liar, even by his own side, with a cabinet of swivel-eyed half wits.  A former Tory deputy PM, Lord Heseltine, is even urging voters to vote for the Liberal Democrats.

Johnson has blocked publication into Russian interference in UK politics with evidence coming out of connections between the Tory party, Johnson himself and Russian oligarchs who have, or once had, close relationships with the Kremlin. 

The Tory campaign slogan is Get Brexit Done - something which is a blatant lie. We will be talking about Brexit in perpetuity - at least until we rejoin the EU.

In the face of these facts (as I see them), if the population willfully decide to give the Conservative party a huge majority it will be an unmistakable sign that we have collectively taken leave of our senses.  Never in our entire history have we been led by such a mendacious idiot with a flagship policy that most experts think is insanely damaging, not just to the well-being of this country, but to it's very existence as the United Kingdom.

Johnson seems to possess something of the quality of a Pied Piper in persuading people to follow his pipe regardless of the disastrous direction he is taking them in.  They are following him laughing and cheering all the way. It is quite mad.

I hesitate to comment on what all this says about Jeremy Corbyn.  Almost any other Labour MP as leader would see the Tories lose this election. He is a gift to Johnson and his cronies.  All the pertaining conditions are a beautifully wrapped present to him but his character and past record has somehow contrived to prevent him making use of them.

Yesterday someone 'leaked' 451 pages of discussions on trade which have taken place between the DIT and US trade representatives. Corbyn claimed these papers showed the NHS is 'up for sale'.  I don't think that's quite right but what they do show is the looming decision that this country will soon be faced with.  The BBC try to explain what the documents might mean.

One section is about food safety where, "In November 2017, the US told UK officials that it considered its food safety system to be 'the gold standard', but acknowledged that its approach is different to the EU's.

"For example, while the EU is trying to reduce the amount of chemicals in food, the US continues to use them, including chlorine, as 'a final double check to remove any traces of pathogens' - ie disease-causing viruses or bacteria."

"One US official suggested that the UK should not stick with the EU's food regulatory standards after Brexit. Instead, the US "recommended that the UK maintains regulatory autonomy".

I daresay the topics under discussion are not wildly different to the US guidelines published in February this year setting out specific negotiating objectives. It's not as if the Americans are not being straight. Their aim is to open up our market for the US Agri-food industry and any regulation that hinders access they want removed.  But if we do this, the British farming industry will be hit with a double whammy.

Trying to compete with cereal farmers in the American midwest where fields are measured in square miles rather than acres is going to be impossible. This is not even to mention GM crops or the laissez faire attitude to the application of fertilisers.  The US also have lower animal welfare standards where anti-biotics are widely used alongside growth promoting chemicals. 

More than this, exports to the EU will be made more difficult because checks will be needed to ensure higher EU standards are not being breached.  For British agriculture this will be a huge double blow which many farmers will not survive.

So, the looming decision I mentioned will be to decide which side of the regulatory fence we want to be on. We cannot be on both. 

Brexiteers seemed to think we could reach some 'Goldilocks' position equi-distant between the US and the EU as far as food standards and other regulatory matters are concerned. I don't believe this is possible and the leaked papers bear this out. Next year (assuming the polls are right) we will have to make some very big and far-reaching decisions, many of which will involve painstaking and detailed negotiations, take years to play out and will not be easy to reverse.

Is Johnson the right man to lead these talks and make these decisions? No, but it looks like he is the man the people will choose to lead us into the river Weser.

What a disaster that would be.  Remember to vote tactically. A Tory majority government must be stopped at all costs.