The Conservative manifesto was launched at the weekend and it is amazingly brief, more like a flyer than a serious programme for government. It looks as if the party has run out of ideas beyond getting out of the EU and making up 3-word slogans. Either they don't know what Brexit means or they do but don't want to frighten the voters. Johnson finds himself in a bind of his own making. He was the architect of the paradox that is Brexit: making economic growth more difficult as he tries to end 10 years of austerity by increased spending.
And in true Johnsonian fashion he has made his job far more difficult by promising not to raise income tax, VAT or National Insurance, something the IFS described as 'bad policy making'. It is painting yourself into an even tighter corner than you are now. Borrowing will have to carry all of the burden. He makes Jeremy Corbyn look fiscally prudent, something most people would have thought impossible.
The manifesto, although flimsy, is built on a single great lie. Get Brexit Done is the title of the document as if it can all be simplified by ticking a box on the ballot paper in December, that leaving the EU is the key to a golden door of prosperity instead of a one-way ticket to the poor house. I think we can all agree Brexit is a significant event. If it was all that Brexiteers promised us over the last four years I would have thought they could have come up with some tangible benefits but apparently not. At best very little will change and probably things will simply go further downhill. Years of more paralysis and argument are going to bring no respite to those at the bottom of the pile.
The Guardian report:
"The Tory document is defined above all by such caution: “The lack of significant policy action is remarkable,” concluded Paul Johnson, the IFS’s director. Labour sought to change the game; the Conservative drafters to keep things on the rails. They are haunted by 2017, when Theresa May snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, aided by a manifesto including social care reforms immediately dubbed the dementia tax."
Johnson, perhaps the most egregious boat-rocker the Tories have ever had, is now trying to make it look like he is keeping the ship of state on an even keel.
The Belfast Telegraph agrees that the PM is being ultra cautious and with the polls giving him a 50 seat majority perhaps that is the right course. But let us mark this event. On the weekend of the manifesto launch he has a comfortable lead in the polls. We will see what happens over the next 17 days.
You might want to have a look at this post on the Political betting website which shows Johnson's net approval rating has been cut by 23 points in the last month. His own rating has fallen from +2 to -10 while Corbyn's has risen from -43 to -34. They say:
"Longstanding readers of PB will know that leadership ratings are a much better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, they foretold the unexpected Conservative majorities of 1992 and 2015. The 2017 ratings were also an indicator that Mrs May was about to squander David Cameron’s majority."
So who knows?
Labour has also promised 3.7 million WASPI (Women Against State Pension Inequality) payments of thousands of pounds to compensate them for having to work longer to get a state pension. This may also persuade a lot of wavering voters. And the more the Tory party argues against this move the more flinty hearted they will look.
Micheal Foot's 1983 Labour manifesto was famously described as the longest suicide note in history. Will Johnson's 2019 manifesto be seen as the shortest? We can only hope.
