Monday 9 December 2019

Election 2019: the last few days

Mercifully, we are entering the last few days before the election but I must say without much of a sense of optimism. After spending the last three weekends campaigning in Keighley, Pudsey and Wakefield we will need a minor miracle to prevent a Johnson victory on Thursday. That Labour should find itself on the defensive after nine years of public sector cutbacks, wage stagnation and lately, the utter chaos of Brexit, is amazing but I am afraid true. 

It takes a special kind of person to throw away the golden opportunity of a parsimonious government in utter disarray led by a congenital liar, but the Labour party managed to find that person when they elected Jeremy Corbyn.  On the doorstep, in seats which have been Labour since Adam was a boy, he is not popular among ordinary working class voters.  Why they think Boris Johnson will improve their lot is never really clear but many of them seem to want to "get Brexit done" as if it's some sort of particularly uncomfortable operation they've been waiting years for on the NHS and after which their lives will be transformed. Hope is always the last thing to die isn't it?

The PM is to travel to Labour's northern heartlands this week including Sunderland, where he will tell voters that "Labour has let you down most of all".  I think it was Goebbels who said if you're going to tell a lie, tell a big one and Johnson needs no encouragement. One wonders who he thinks has been in power since 2010 and who is threatening the existence of the town's biggest employer, Nissan. 

Northern Ireland and the border keeps coming up with an interview this morning on Radio 4 with a representative of Manufacturing NI and later, Arlene Foster of the DUP questioning Johnson's continued assertions about there being no checks on goods exported either way. Foster in particular was clear. They have spoken to HMRC and there will be checks.  Nick Robinson asked if she thought Johnson was a liar or ignorant of the truth. She didn't answer and didn't need to, we already know he's both don't we?

This is beginning to matter. First of all, the BBC report the sharpest drop in business activity in NI for seven years with construction and retail particularly badly hit. Worse, CNN have an article claiming Johnson is "playing with fire" in Northern Ireland:

"In Belfast, London is either loved or loathed, depending which side of the community you sit on. Historically the divide ran along Protestant and Catholic lines, but in Prime Minister Boris Johnson's short few months in office he's inadvertently managed to bring that fence down. Now pretty much everyone in the city is against London in one way or another."

And note this:

"In Unionist neighborhoods in Belfast, election posters proclaim Johnson a betrayer. It is this perception which has turned the election in Northern Ireland on its head."

Tactical voting and maneuvering between the parties seem in danger of setting off all the old rivalries between the nationalist and unionist communities:

"In the Belfast North constituency, the Green Party and the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) are not putting up candidates to avoid splitting the remain vote. This strategy gives Sinn Fein's John Finucane -- the dominant nationalist force in the constituency -- the best shot of beating long-time DUP incumbent Nigel Dodds.

"This cross-party effort to defeat Dodds, the DUP's leader in Westminster, has led to old sectarian grievances being dug up. Hard-line unionists, or loyalists, are accusing the moderate nationalist SDLP of backing terror because of their support for Sinn Fein, a party historically associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA)."

If Sinn Fein do defeat Nigel Dodds it will be a crucial moment, perhaps the spark that will set off the troubles once again. If the PSNI cannot contain disorder, the next step is to bring in the army and we will be back to 1969. We should all hope none of this happens but if it is avoided, it will be no thanks to Boris Johnson.

I have never been active in any election campaign before now, but I'm making up for it.  I have canvassed door-to-door for Labour in three constituencies, Keighley, Pudsey and Wakefield, for several days, I have stuffed envelopes for the LibDems in York Outer and today I've got 500 leaflets to deliver for The Green party in Selby.  

This is all in the name of stopping Johnson and Brexit. I truly hope it's all worthwhile.

Perhaps minor miracles do happen sometimes.