We enter the last nine days of the general election with the polls apparently showing a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Tories. At the start of the election campaign the Electoral calculus website predicted a Tory majority of 76. Yesterday, it stood at 34, confirmation that Labour is gaining ground apparently at the expense of the Lib Dems and Brexit Party. But it was still suggesting a 68% chance of a Conservative majority.
There are reasons to be cheerful in these last nine days, as Andrew Neil pursues the prime minister to put him under the grill. Firstly, there has been quite a surge in voter registration, especially younger voters who have a 2:1 preference for Labour. I don't want to overstate this because something like it apparently happens at every election and some of the figures will include students who register at their university location when they are already registered at home. Nevertheless, there does seem to be something happening.
Secondly, the PM's minders are keeping him under wraps as far as they can because of his tendency to put his foot in it - so the Neil interview could be crucial in these closing days. A spin doctor at the weekend said on Radio 4 that it's better to get these difficult interviews out of the way as early as possible so you can recover from any gaffes. Johnson is leaving it dangerously late.
Thirdly, there is a significant increase in Labour's on-the-ground campaign, swelled by People's Vote volunteers like Selby for Europe. I can hardly remember how many doors I've knocked on and how many voters I've spoken to in Wakefield, Pudsey and Keighley with multiple sessions in all three constituencies, and I'm not alone. This must make a difference.
Fourthly, tactical voting will play a huge part in this election. There are a number of tactical voting websites which you can use (the PV one is HERE) which are constantly being updated. They started with some disagreements between them but they are now all coming into line with advice on how to vote to keep the Tories out. This must also have an impact. I understand there is private polling suggesting up to a quarter of voters plan to vote tactically.
There is still all to play for.
President Trump is on a three day visit to celebrate the 70th anniversary of NATO, which is an irony since nobody has done as much to damage the organisation as Donald Trump himself. He will begin his campaign for a second term next year still without breathing a word of criticism of the country (Russia) that NATO was intended to defend against. He will be asked about the prospect of a UK-US trade deal and the NHS is bound to come up. This is not good for Johnson who, amazingly, has no plan for a bilateral meeting with Trump. Johnson will be the first PM in history not to meet a POTUS during an official visit.
I want to come back to fishing because I think this has the potential to be a very difficult issue for Johnson in any future trade talks. On the Andrew Marr show yesterday (HERE 9:50 minutes in) the egregious Dominic Raab was asked what was different between May's deal and Johnson's own 'over ready' deal on fishing. Johnson resigned in 2018 over May's version claiming it gave the EU the right to 'bully and blackmail' us saying, 'if history teaches us anything, it is that our European friends will not desist until they have worked out a way to plunder the waters of Scotland for their fish'.
Raab began by saying: "Under the previous set of arrangements, which you're right, were completely unsatisfactory, the EU would have had a control over our fisheries, under this arrangement in a negotiation......"
Marr then interrupts to point out the words in both deals are identical - which Raab flatly denies even though it is written down in black and white!! What was 'completely unsatisfactory' in 2018 was completely acceptable and even a good deal in 2019.
Johnson does not understand the details which he has signed up to and which he resigned over. Fishermen are about to be sold down the river again. They are highly unlikely to accept it quietly. When this happens Johnson will be toast - assuming he's not toast before.
The Conservative Woman website is starting to publish articles quite critical of Johnson and his Brexit policy but this one by Timothy Bradshaw, a Theological lecturer and Anglican clergyman, is particularly pointed. It asks the question: Boris, a sheep in wolf’s clothing?
Mr Bradshaw is very worried that the Tories poll lead has been halved. He is the author of a number of rabidly pro-Brexit pieces on various websites and also quite a sabre-rattler for a supposedly religious man, writing:
"The bravado of a ‘fantastic deal’ is beginning to wear thin and will disappoint the voters of all kinds if it turns out that he has caved in to Whitehall and Brussels.
"Timid, appeasing Boris, a sheep in wolf’s clothing, needs to recover his bark and his bite, reconnect with the people who actually do things in our economy against the Sir Humphreys and Monsieur Barniers, if he’s to complete that final furlong and free Britain from the clutches of the EU."
Brexit brings out the very worst in people doesn't it?
We are going to see rather a lot of disappointment in the coming months and years.
