Tuesday 31 December 2019

The wheels on the bus go round and round

Phil Hogan, the new Trade Commissioner, might be excused for having a dig at Brexit Britain given that he is Irish and our role in Ireland over the last few hundred years has not been without its problems, to put it mildly. The Irish Times have an interview with him where he seems to be confident Johnson will back down when it comes to extending the transition period. Hogan doesn't think our PM will die in a ditch for the sake of his self-imposed deadline. The idea of anyone who spends Christmas in a £20,000 a week villa on Mustique dying in a ditch for anything is risible anyway so I think Hogan is on safe ground.

And who can blame Mr Hogan for taking the opportunity, now the boot is on the other foot, to give the aging and befuddled lion a bit of a kicking?

"The former minister [Hogan] described as 'very odd' the British government’s decision to include a clause in legislation ruling out an extension of the transition period beyond the end of 2020, suggesting the move was a political 'stunt'."

However, his comments have provoked a furious reaction from some Brexiteers, including Stewart Jackson who was Chief of Staff and Special Adviser to David Davis, Secretary of State at DEXEU, until July 2018 when Davis resigned. He is, if it's possible, even more deluded than Davis.  Stewart tweeted:
Since Johnson conceded everything in his haste to get a deal for the October 31st deadline, which he then missed anyway, I am quite sure the EU and Phil Hogan will know who is a 'craven supplicant'  and who is not (clue: it isn't the EU).  

Mujtaba Rahman is a former HM Treasury official and has also worked in the European Commission and is now a professor at the LSE. I usually respect his opinions since he seems to have good contacts on both sides. He also took to Twitter.
On this occasion though I think he's wrong.

Rahman says the government is very serious about not extending the deadline and 'believe' in the 'benefits' of Brexit in a way that Theresa May did not. If this is true we are in deeper trouble than anyone realises. There are no benefits to Brexit. It's the equivalent of being told someone is serious about creationism or the benefits of prayer. I've always lived on the basis that a man's personal religious beliefs are a matter for him alone but when he insists on taking an entire nation along he is not much different to the Ayatollahs in Iran, ISIS or The Taliban.

If this is indeed the government's position, next year will be a watershed moment.  An exporter or importer who relied on pan European supply chains should take this to mean Johnson really is stupid enough to use a wrecking ball on British industry and a hard Brexit is coming up driven by ignorance.

I noted the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) issued their latest  warning to government yesterday:

"Much of next year will be dominated by talks between London and Brussels on the future partnership to take effect from 2021, with manufacturers seeking the closest possible relationship to maintain their seamless production processes.

" 'UK car production is export-led, so we look forward to working with the new government to deliver an ambitious trade deal with the EU,' said SMMT Chief Executive Mike Hawes.

'That deal needs to be tariff-free and avoid barriers to trade, which, for automotive, means that our standards must be aligned'."


"We cannot risk betraying these values [high food standards] by allowing food imports such as chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef – food that has been produced in ways that are illegal here – on to our supermarket shelves," 

None of this is new of course. So far it is the government who has the tin ear. They appear to be avoiding any consultation and are plowing on regardless, confidently relying on nothing more than anti-EU prejudice and mindless ignorance.

The question will be: will the combined might of the CBI, the NFU and all the trade bodies who are unanimously in favour of close alignment be enough to convince Ayatollah Cummings that he's wrong?

Don't count on it.

However, I do expect the screams of industry to get much louder as the year goes on and the wheels of the bus they are being thrown under not only go round and round but also get closer and closer.

You might also be interested in this Twitter thread from Kevin O'Rourke, professor of economics at NYU Abu Dhabi, after The Times (The Times!) reported that the EU were 'threatening' to block financial services trade:
He points out something that Dr Richard North has been saying for three years. The EU are not going to 'block City trade' as The Times reports. We are doing it to ourselves. O'Rourke:

"Brexit destroys the legal framework that made such things possible in the first place. The UK, not the EU, is responsible for this and it is irritating to see the EU being accused of threatening to do things that Brexit does automatically."

Look out for more of this in 2020. It is more than disappointing to see it coming from The Thunderer and more like what we expect from The Sun and The Mail.

So, this is the last post of 2019. I wish everyone a Happy New Year. The fight begins in earnest tomorrow.
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