Brexit Johnson's honeymoon didn't last long did it? The walls are just beginning to close in on him. This week has seen a flurry of bad Brexit news on several fronts, not least the economy and jobs. Readers of this blog will know I have always believed it is the economy which will prove to be Brexit's undoing. And although things have held up better than many people thought, this year may well be the moment when the fallout from the folly starts to become clear.
On the economy
Inflation hit a low point of 1.3% in a sign we are seeing a slowdown. It follows hints from the Bank of England that a reduction in interest rates may be coming - although it's hard to see what a 0.25% cut is going to achieve. The new governor, Andrew Bailey, has precious little firepower left to stimulate the economy if it becomes necessary.
The House of Commons library put out a sombre briefing note about the slowing economic growth and what it calls the "productivity challenge". It points out that wage growth is lower than it was a decade ago and that productivity (output per hour worked) is barely above what it was in 2007. This is not global trading superpower stuff
On jobs
We learned Vauxhall's Ellesmere Port factory looks doomed, something The Telegraph reports with raised eyebrows, as if all the warnings that automotive supply chains may not survive a hard Brexit really were just scaremongering. Production of the Astra estate is being transferred to plants in Europe where 95% of sales are made. Am I surprised? No.
From Burnley comes news that a parts supplier, BCS Automotive Interface Solutions, is closing a local plant with the loss of 100 jobs and in Kent, 300 more jobs are to go in Sittingbourne as the Antolin Interiors factory, which supplies Jaguar-Land Rover, closes. Are these all Brexit related? Who knows but it certainly looks like it to me.
Every utterance from a minister, ERG MP or government advisor about deviating from EU standards reinforces the notion we are to be totally separated from Europe. CEO's make decisions on these things every day and it cannot help secure jobs.
Meanwhile, Mondi packaging, a South African paper company, is closing a plant in Wales with the loss of 167 jobs.
The bail out of Flybe is attracting attention - mainly from its competitors, as a supposed free-market supporting government steps in with state aid to keep the ailing business going. The problem with this sort of intervention is that it becomes highly addictive and harder to resist next time. And reducing taxes on the highest polluting form of travel does not help Brexit Johnson's green credentials.
Ireland
Ursula Von der Leyen has told reporters in Dublin that the withdrawal agreement will become law and the EU will monitor compliance closely. She perhaps puts her finger on our future problem. If access to the single market is important to us (and it is) the EU will always have the whip hand, threatening to withhold access for specific sectors if we get tardy about meeting our obligations.
And Varadkar has become the latest figure to warn on level playing field conditions.
But perhaps the cleverest intervention came from the Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, who says it would be a "massive failure" for Brexit Johnson if he does not get a free trade agreement by the end of this year - thus piling the pressure on the PM to accept anything the EU offer, following his interview this week where he said it was "epically unlikely" we wouldn't get a deal.
Northern Ireland
The NI parties are dismayed, not to put too fine a point on it, by Johnson's 'offer' of £2 billion which turns out to be £750 million in reality. No wonder he was a bit coy about the whole thing. Unionists and Nationalists have been keeping tabs on the promises made by NI Secretary Julian Smith and BJ himself and they think £2 billion falls short anyway.
Arlene Foster has accused the prime minister of "bad faith". Mild by comparison to what most remainers think about him but nevertheless not welcome in Northern Irish politics as he will find out soon enough.
Scotland
If our woeful PM was trying to deliberately create division between Edinburgh and London he could not have done a better job than turning down Nicola Sturgeon's request to have powers transferred to Holyrood for Indyref2. It was clumsily done.
SNP leaders immediately took to Twitter. We had this from Sturgeon herself:
1/ Tories are terrified of Scotland’s right to choose - because they know that when given the choice we’ll choose independence. Tories have no positive case for the union - so all they can do is attempt to deny democracy. It will not stand. https://t.co/ILpW8Sx4kv— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) January 14, 2020
But Ian Blackford, Angus MacNeil and Joanne Cherry all chipped in with varying levels of vitriol. Brexit, like Culloden, will never be forgotten in Scotland.
As for the trade deal talks, Brexit Johnson would do well to take note of a vote in the European Parliament yesterday:
It's an ominous warning that 610 MEPs are watching closely. They will need to approve the trade deal.European Parliament just voted 610-29 in support of protecting EU citizens' rights in Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. "Don't expect backing for any sort of trade deal with the U.K. unless these are protected," says Guy Verhofstadt. #LibDems #StopBrexit— Chris Davies MEP (@ChrisDaviesLD) January 15, 2020
Polling
There has been a lull in EU referendum polling with nothing published from 4th December. I thought the pollsters may have given up - but no. NatCen (Professor John Curtice's group) recently published the result of the average of the last six polls running up to the 11th January.
There has been a five week gap, a period during which we had a general election revolving largely around our exit from the EU. As we know, the Tories won a landslide victory with the slogan 'Get Brexit Done'. So what is the public attitude to Brexit now?
The answer is that the public are still locked 53% to 47% in favour of REMAIN!
Finally, to end with a bit of a laugh. A Brexit celebration planned for the 31st January in Doncaster has been called off according to The Star. They quote a post on Lord Brexit's Facebook page which reads: “Due to unforeseen circumstances the 'Brexit countdown event' is to be scraped (sic)".
They voted for it but can't actually be arsed to celebrate Brexit - and they can't spell either.
