Thursday 28 May 2020

The high stakes game is reaching its climax

The UK's chief negotiator David Frost and Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove appeared before Hilary Benn's Future Relationship Committee yesterday, the BBC covered it briefly HERE and Reuters report is HERE. I didn't see the entire session but I'll try and review it in a bit more detail later. Both the BBC and Reuters focus on one short clip, presumably because of the sheer brass neck that Mr Frost showed.

He told the committee of MPs that the EU's formal mandate "in key areas" is not one that is "likely to produce an agreement with us" and that the EU needs to "evolve" its mandate in order to reach an agreement. This is British exceptionalism at its worst.

Gove listened in silence but I assume he agrees with Frost.  We genuinely think twenty seven sovereign nation's will need to come together and formally change the mandate so painstakingly agreed over months and months in order to accommodate the demands of an ex-member. I am not sure if he's on any kind of medication which might affect his judgement or his thinking but this is pure delusion.

For Barnier and the EU, the fact that Frost is not a minister and not even a civil servant must be galling.

The EU have been transparent, publishing a clear, comprehensive mandate and a draft 440 page draft text all agreed by the EU27 member states and the European parliament and we have an unelected nobody with no published mandate, no parliamentary agreement and a cherry-picked wish list of our 'demands'.  It really is beyond parody.  The fact that he sat alongside Gove who the day before apparently told Nick Ferrari at LBC that he too had tested his eyesight by driving a car, only added to the fun.  We are truly a laughing stock around the world, not just in Brussels.

Reuters say:

Frost told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday that like the UK, the EU has “quite a lot on its plate at the moment”, but that the negotiations needed to be given attention.

“I think it’s important that they keep enough focus on these negotiations as well and don’t relegate them to something that can be done when they get round to it, as it were,” Frost said.

“I think political attention on the very serious points we raised in my letter is going to be an important part in coming to an agreement.”

Which comes across as don't worry about the global pandemic, what's a few hundred thousand deaths and wrecked economies from Sweden to Greece compared to Brexit?  His letter to Barnier, according to reports, actually caused the EU states most concerned about fishing to stiffen their resolve.

We are reaching the point where real decisions need to be made. On the outside, Frost, Gove and Johnson give the appearance of relaxed nonchalance - probably as required by the real prime minister Dominic Cummings. But inside there must be a lot of nervousness. The high stakes game will reach a conclusion in the next few weeks and months.

We are not prepared for what is to come, as noted yesterday about the lack of customs agents and infrastructure. There is no agreement yet on what businesses in NI are supposed to prepare FOR' let alone a plan to implement.  The government is taking us down an alley with only two possible routes out for them. Either it will accept the EU's deal - or something very close to it, a climb down of epic proportions, or it will leave without a deal and into political chaos that will end the careers of Johnson, Gove, Frost and Cummings and see the Tory party out of power for years.

The 2024 election will be won or lost in the next few weeks.

I also note in The Independent that Gove is quoted in the same committee session saying the UK will refuse to sign up to human rights safeguards demanded by the EU in exchange for a trade deal so that "the government has the option of changing the Human Rights Act".  

"The cabinet office minister told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday that the government might want to 'enhance' legislation on human rights 'in all sorts of ways'."

I am sure this is something that we never intend to do but is thrown in so we can 'negotiate' it away in return for something else. It's a well known ploy the EU will see through in a flash.