At tomorrow's video conference meeting with Ursula Von der Leyen we learn Johnson will tell the president of the EU Commission that SHE is drinking in the last chance saloon and that we are leaving on January 1st "whatever happens". This is a bit like the condemned man threatening the executioner. In any case and by all accounts he should have been discovered "dead in a ditch" somewhere last winter after failing to leave on October 31st last year.
The Express says Johnson will say we want a FTA based on similar ones with Canada and others. That's our offer take-it-or-leave-it. And if you don't take it,"whatever happens, we will be ready for January 1." Ms Von der Leyen may be hard-pressed to avoid laughing since Michael Gove announced to the world on Friday that we are anything BUT ready - forced to throw open our borders because we haven't done anything to build the infrastructure to carry out checks.
The Sun went further and claims "Sneaky Eurocrats" had demanded secret negotiations carried out under a news blackout with ambassadors kept in the dark but they "threw in the towel on Friday and agreed to 'intensify talks' over the summer after Britain ruled out a further extension." This I believe is the absolute reverse of the truth. The Sun again:
"A British government official [one with the initials DC] said: “The EU was a little slow to agree to an intensified timetable for talks, and has been making noises about so-called tunnels. That’s not something we ever wanted and it’s welcome that they’ve now signed up to a sensible process to take the talks forward."
For the EU it must be like negotiating with a mentally unstable Chemical Ali or a whole bunch of men with the same breezy upbeat view of impending disaster and prone to chronic mendacity. Behind Johnson and his negotiators the EU can see the massed ranks of British industry and our civil service wide-eyed in horror at the thought of what is to come - unless we agree a trade deal.
This is all straight out of the Cummings school of diplomacy. And more or less an exact re-run of the 800 word text message sent to James Forsyth at The Spectator last year - published verbatim in his ensuing article - threatening to walk away if the EU proposed an Ireland-only backstop. As the timer ticked down a few days later Johnson agreed to the Ireland-only backstop and he presented it as a triumph. Mark Francois claimed a few days ago it was the EU that "blinked" but then he's a Chemical Ali in another world isn't he?
I do not expect any different outcome this time from last October.
Johnson will capitulate - because that is his only real option if he is not to see his waning popularity drop further until even his own supporters are all sticking needles into wax effigies of the PM as he becomes a figure of hate for the vast majority.
He has already given us his disastrous handling of a pandemic, which is leading to the British economy resembling a waste land following a hurricane and to top that up with another tumultuous and entirely avoidable economic maelstrom you would think a step too far even for a sociopathic Old Etonian like Johnson. And if he can't see it coming others will.
More intensive talks (they could hardly get much more intensive since they are negotiating on multiple fronts simultaneously) are set to take place in July, August and September with a view to getting an agreement by October so that it can be ratified.
But to get anywhere Johnson will need to signal a lot more flexibility tomorrow. And I expect him to do that privately - if not publicly.
