Wednesday 17 June 2020

Fishing: EU ready to compromise?


The EU is apparently ready to row back on its demands for continued access to British waters after Brexit - according to a credible report in The Times (HERE).  This goes against what the EU parliament are expected to demand when later today, they endorse a report calling for continued reciprocal access. This seems odd to me but the report is quite clear, albeit without quoting any one specifically.

The Times say, "In a concession to help to unlock negotiations, Michel Barnier is understood to accept that the UK will have to be treated as an independent coastal state and have annual negotiations with the bloc over fishing quotas from next year."

"The EU’s chief negotiator told European diplomats that the compromise would have to wait until other parts of the deal were closer to being finalised."

I say odd because if true, one assumes this would be accompanied by a big or indeed bigger concession from the UK but what that might be we don't yet know. It should however worry David Frost and Boris Johnson because they will now be expected to reciprocate, perhaps on bigger fish (sorry!) like LPF matters, state aid and governance.  The EU may simply be offering to sacrifice a cheap pawn, who knows?

It may give the appearance of flexibility on the EU side but you can be sure will will be the UK doing most of the bending.

A senior EU source says this is in an effort to "dilute the influence of France and the other coastal states" and that Barnier needs to have a complete trade deal ready, which then stands or falls on fishing.

I wouldn't put it past president Macron to hold out anyway but he cannot outvote the others on the EU Council. The trade deal - assuming it is not 'mixed' - only requires a 65% majority of countries with 72% of the population to be approved.  But French fishermen will blockade ports anyway so I assume politically he will try to block it but blame Barnier and the Commission if it gets approved.

It is also helpful to Barnier to be seen as making an effort to get some flexibility in his mandate and we don't know what happened during the virtual meeting on Monday. Johnson and Von der Leyen, Sassoli and Michel must have discussed the broad outline of where there is give and take.

Of course being treated as an independent coastal state and negotiating quotas every year with the EU is maybe a good or bad thing.  It will create a sense of the UK being constantly at loggerheads with a much larger rival and always with the risk of British fish being blocked from European markets by the action of French fishermen.

Barnier is now said to have "the authority to discuss areas of compromise with Mr Frost even if they are not strictly within the negotiating mandate set down by the EU 27 leaders."

We will soon find out where the EU are compromising and then it will be Johnson's turn.