Monday 8 June 2020

The Brexit fires are starting to smoulder

It's an act of faith to accept a headline in The Express has even the most tenuous link to the truth and yet the one on Sunday seems to fit with the evidence. They claimed Boris wants to "fix the 'defective' Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, paving the way for a furious showdown with Brussels."  Actually the main headline refers to "May's" deal as if Johnson is distancing himself from his own "over-ready" deal which turns out to be a turkey apparently  However amazing this may sound, it actually seems to have some supporting evidence.

First of all we see from David Frost's attitude towards the negotiations, as announced by Michel Barnier on Friday, that we are indeed "distancing" ourselves from what was agreed last year. It probably is paving the way for a "showdown" - as it should.

It also fits in with what Steve Baker wrote in The Critic magazine a few weeks ago that MPs were told by Michael Gove that "we could change it [the withdrawal agreement] later."

Yesterday came confirmation from another source, this time the awful Owen Paterson who tweeted:
As professor Chris Grey and plenty of others have already pointed out, the WA is an international treaty solemnly ratified by 27 heads of state, the European parliament and both of our own Houses of parliament. Coming from Johnson/Cummings it is perhaps not surprising, they are both away with the fairies, but the sad truth is a lot of Conservative MPs actually believed them.  This is stunning.

It speaks to their exaggerated sense of worth and British exceptionalism embedded in the modern Tory party.  Not only did they think it was possible, they thought we should have the right to go back and change stuff that we have already signed up for. They are trashing our reputation for straight dealing in pursuit of something unattainable - a Britain which is wealthier, more secure and more influential outside the European Union.

As the Brexit they promised in 2016 fades into the distance the more they push the boundaries like spoiled children to get something - anything - that might resemble a small advantage.  These men (and it is mostly men) are quite mad.

In my limited experience of negotiations - for commercial contracts, but sometimes important and quite valuable ones - trust is essential to build confidence. It is better to over-deliver on what you committed to if you want to build that trust. Making noises about breaching the terms of the agreement before you've fulfilled them is not sending a good signal. The other side is only going to bind you tighter in future.

A few times in the past on this blog I have suggested the government would be firefighting across the country as the deadline approached and the huge self-created problems became ever more apparent and widespread. Last week we heard the British Retail Consortium warn of food shortages if we get a disorderly Brexit, suggesting it would be worse than Covid-19.  With the pandemic the problems were logistical ones when demand increased as people began stockpiling. There never was a shortage of food.

A disorderly Brexit would affect the supply and Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the BRC giving evidence to EFRA, the environment, food and rural affairs select committee, said:

“If we see the borders disrupted in January with a disorderly Brexit then we’ve got a big problem because then we won’t have the food in the country to move around”

This is just one thing. Today Faisal Islam at the BBC has obtained a "leaked memo" (read - given to him by the pharma industry to blast out over the airways to alert people to the looming disaster) which says the government itself must "consider buying and storing stockpiles of critical products" because of shortages caused by the pandemic and no-deal Brexit planning:
The industry is not prepared to shoulder all the additional costs as they did last year and according to Islam, they are suggesting:

"Memo also says Government must clearly signal in the next few weeks it will be reoperating No Deal emergency freight services and planes for No Trade Deal Brexit to deal with 'border disruption expected at the end of transition period'."

Northern Ireland Assembly members were told the other day by the province's chief vet that a smooth transition in December/January was "no longer possible" and they were now effectively focusing on emergency measures just to keep food on the shelves next January.

We haven't heard anything yet from Dover or Folkestone or Holyhead but rest assured we will.

The fires are beginning to smoulder.
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