There was a couple of interesting reports yesterday on Business Insider (HERE) and on CNN (HERE) . Together they give a nice overview of where we are as the last round of scheduled talks began before a decision needs to be made about an extension. At the end of the CNN article there are some quoted comments from an unnamed EU diplomat which I think have the ring of truth about them. Whilst over here the government still sees Brexit as an existential thing, the EU really have 'moved on'.
From CNN:
"In Brussels, member states came to terms with there being no deal at the end of the year some time ago. 'We are not emotionally invested in the UK's decisions anymore,' said a European diplomat based in Brussels. 'It is a country outside the EU, we are focusing on our coronavirus recovery,' said the same source."
"This level of insouciance is not uncommon across the EU's institutions, where an official working on the negotiations said with a shrug that 'the UK is free to do whatever it wants' and that Brussels is prepared for a 'stalemate' at the end of June.
"The EU has for some time believed it will cope with the no-deal shock better than the UK. 'The EU knows it is in the stronger position. Yes, no deal is bad for them, but it's much worse for the UK,' says Thomas Cole, a former EU negotiator. 'It's true that both sides are sovereign equals but they are very aware that they don't need to make the kind of concessions the UK needs to make'."
Even from the outside one can see the sheer disparity between the two sides and nowhere more so than in this piece on Reuters (HERE). Britain is apparently seeking "special treatment to ensure its finance industry has more predictable access to the EU". This is about an industry worth £26 billion in exports to the EU alone (an SMF report on Monday claims it's worth £33 billion) which we are apparently willing to sacrifice to save or give a bit of a boost to the UK fishing industry worth less that £1 billion in total.
Does that make sense? Of course not, as our fishermen are about to find out.
It also makes a mockery of David Davis' claim that the German car makers would put pressure on the EU to negotiate a good deal for the UK. It is as if sales of German cars to us are much more important than our sales of financial products to them.
Business Insider quotes Hilary Benn who is puzzled by the government's "relaxed" attitude to getting a new trading relationship with the UK's biggest trading partner.
"It's extraordinary that the government has not done an updated economic assessment of the kind of deal it's looking for with the EU, whereas on the US trade deal there were 50 to 60 pages of assessment, I cannot for the life of me understand why our most important relationship is treated in that way."
This morning an intervention from Nissan will make uncomfortable reading for the government and for the thousands of families in and around the Sunderland plant who rely on it for their livelihood. The CEO, Ashwani Gupta, says the plant is not viable unless we get tariff free access to the EU27 market.
So, although I don't know the government's intentions over the next three or four weeks and whether or not we will ask for an extension or get a deal in the next few months, the idea that we might leave without one is for the birds. It is as it has always been - impossible.
And once you accept this it isn't much of a leap of the imagination to realise that we will eventually have to accept the EU's terms. Enter Boris Johnson who will then sell it all as a triumph - and may well succeed among many in the population but the ERG and the hardliners will never forgive him. We will be under EU rules forever with no say in them.
Even if against all my expectations he takes us out without a deal in January. Both sides will be affected and it will make a bad situation immeasurably worse. But the EU will recover sooner than the UK and would quickly have absorbed the cost of Brexit. This will only put them in an even stronger position to negotiate with us when (I do not say if) we come knocking on the door later.
All this must have been considered by officials if not by the Cummings/Johnson duo.
The weakness of our position is about to be exposed.
