Monday 6 July 2020

Break up of the UK has never been closer


Before the SNP became a significant force in Scottish politics the idea of the United Kingdom breaking apart was unthinkable. The 2014 independence referendum shook the foundations and created a bit of a panic in the Conservative and Unionist party ( the irony) and in the end they had to throw everything at it, including Gordon Brown, in order to get the right result.

Brexit has brought it all back onto the front burner and the British government is either complicit, complacent or doesn't care. New polling shows the SNP would win indyref2 comfortably.  There was a Panelbase poll in late June with 54% in favour of independence and yesterday The Sunday Times has a second poll putting Yes ahead by another record 8% margin:
The ST reports says:

"Record support for the SNP means that Sturgeon is heading for a landslide win in the elections for the Scottish parliament on May 6, and senior nationalists predict that a referendum will take place within a year of the vote, although Johnson could try to block the move.

"The poll of 1,026 voters in Scotland, conducted between Tuesday and Friday, gives the SNP a commanding lead and the highest level of backing in almost a decade of Panelbase polling for The Sunday Times.

"In the constituency vote the SNP is on 55%, up four points since March, with the Conservatives on 20% (-6), Labour 15% (+1), the Lib Dems unchanged on 6% and the Greens unchanged on 3%"

If there is another referendum, authorised or unauthorised by Westmintser, Johnson is not the man to persuade the Scots to vote No again. If anything it is his dire performance as PM that has buoyed up support for Nicola Sturgeon who looks like a serious politician compared to the clown we have at No 10.  I fear a break up is now inevitable.

Meanwhile, the new Taoiseach in Ireland, Michaal Martin, is said by the Irish Independent to be plotting a path towards a border poll that may well lead to a United Ireland.

I must say the latter is far more likely than the former, especially as the cost of the new border checks that Johnson recklessly agreed to last October becomes clear. Business will find it cheaper and easier to buy and trade with the Republic in the south and ties beween GB and NI will begin to atrophy.  The bizarre thing is that it will all have come about through the DUP who supported their own betrayal even when everyone else could see it coming.

The Sunday Times also carried a report yesterday: The world is laughing — and Britain is the big joke. It is a piece about how we are now seen by the rest of the world. I always worried that Brexit would reveal the truth about this country and I'm afraid this is exactly what's happening. The ST say our ‘big mouth’ PM and scenes of reckless sunbathing have turned our proud nation into a punchline.

No doubt Johnson will be remembered as a stupid, lightweight and fundamentally unserious person but that will be a small part of it. History will look back on him as the man who broke up the United Kingdom for nothing more than his own personal ambition.

What an epitaph - but so richly deserved.

Finally, The Telegraph in their on line edition but not in print have a story by Lizzy Burden: Unseen and untested Brexit IT system risks customs chaos, which says the Goods Vehicle Movement Service (GVMS) expects to deal with 400m customs declarations a year rather than the planned for 60m.

I am afraid it's behind a paywall but Ms Burden confuses the GVMS system (still at the design stage) with the new CDS system (up and running but not scheduled to be finished until March next year) and claims HMRC have been migrating companies to it from the old CHIEF system.

She is hopelessly confused. The Telegraph has been chafing for Brexit for years and years but have still not quite grasped what it is or what it means. But they very soon will.
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