Well we finally got the BOM we were waiting for. The Border Operating Model was published yesterday and one can see why they were reluctant to let it out. Gove's statement in the House was the usual stuff about giving businesses the details and ensuring the "smooth flow" of goods but this was the opposite of the truth. My advice if you're an exporter whose business depends on the EU is to sit down with a stiff drink before reading its 206 pages.
Some of the diagrams are stunning. Take this one for example on how to import through locations with no Customs Control System, which it says means border locations which only handle goods from the EU - Dover and Folkestone presumably?
It is packed full of acronyms with a two page glossary to help understand the byzantine complexity of our post Brexit trade with the EU. At last we can see what the 50,000 form fillers are going to be doing.
As I said before the campaign to inform people and businesses was always going to be difficult and this guidance is a good demonstration of that. Brexit has turned from the bright opportunity-laden future for global Britain through the slow acceptance that there are no real advantages to the final realisation that it is in fact a costly and absolute nightmare.
And as plenty of people are already pointing out, all of this relies on new computer systems that have yet to be designed let alone built and tested. Gove said he was confident it would be ready in time although I don't know what gives him that confidence, it can't be the government's record in this area which is universally awful. But as the head of the RHA has said, they need time to understand the system and to get used to it, to inform members and train staff.
The change the government is proposing overnight in January is the sort of thing phased in over a period of years, not one second after midnight.
We are spending vast sums of money on unnecessary infrastructure and a permanent bureaucracy at a cost of £7 billion a year according to the FT - just for customs declarations (EU companies will spend the same amount) not counting a similar amount on safety and security declarations.
It is pure insanity.
As David Henig tweeted:
And let's be clear about what this cost means to business - it raises the cost of their exports compared to competitors within the EU. And for imports it will ultimately raise the cost for consumers. https://t.co/6RTVnkubzz— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) July 13, 2020
The only result will be a loss of export trade. EU based businesses will have far greater choice and options for sourcing goods inside the bloc and ultimately UK suppliers will suffer.
Brexiteers often complained about the huge trade gap between Britain and the EU. Brexit and the new Border Operating Model will only increase that gap. Services, where we enjoy a surplus will suffer disproportionately because the EU FTA will barely cover services, especially financial services.
The brown stuff is only just beginning to hit the fan.
