The trade talks are going well beyond the wire. Barnier is out of isolation and said to be meeting with some EU Fishing ministers today to brief them on progress, or lack of it presumably, before travelling to London tonight to continue negotiations. If I was Barnier I would be as mad as hell at the ridiculous and relentless pace, a result solely of Johnson's decision not to extend or make the obvious concessions. This does not increase trust or empathy or encourage the other side to be reasonable. It is all entirely self defeating.
But there is no doubt we are within hours or at most a day or two of either a breakthrough or a breakdown.
Personally, I think it would concentrate minds in London if the EU were to say something along the lines of, "we continue to talk to find a solution and reach an agreement but we now accept there is no time to do that or to ratify it before December 31. Both sides are fully prepared for no deal, so the UK will leave the transition period and for a few days or weeks trade will be on WTO terms until the text is finalised and all points agreed."
It would immediately relieve the time pressure and remove the UK's biggest weapon. However, I doubt they will do it. Unfortunately.
I think most sane people can see we are totally unprepared with queues expected at Dover and elsewhere although they probably won't be that bad for that long because hauliers won't want to make EU-UK trips or vice-versa for fear of being caught up in the chaos. This will mean shortages of many things, fresh fruit and vegetables for sure and an increase in prices.
Now much of this is connected with exports. The government has said it will waive imports through for up to six months but even this is fraught with problems. Anna Jerzewska had a public exchange on Twitter with someone about the new HMRC Customs Freight Simplified Procedures, Entry In Declarants Records (CFSP/EIDR) scheme.
I keep trying to establish what docs will need to be submitted for CFSP/EIDR in non-inventory linked ports. How will border force know that these goods belong to traders that have been authorised to use simplification vs just rolling in?
— Dr Anna Jerzewska (@AnnaJerzewska) November 25, 2020
She is an expert and is struggling to find the details with a month to go. She talks about "non-inventory linked ports" which I discover are ports not connected to the HMRC's CHIEF computer system as opposed to inventory-linked ports. An importer apparently needs to obtain a "badge" for each port. I found this description:
To complete import customs entries in the UK importers must purchase a “badge” for each individual port where they want to complete the entries. So to complete Felixstowe entries they need to purchase a Felixstowe badge; for Southampton, a Southampton badge is needed, etc. That is the norm in the UK because the main ports are “inventory-linked” to the HMRC CHIEF computer system and the Community Systems Providers (CSPs) who provide the badges also control the movement and customs clearance of imported goods through the ports.
It goes on to explain that Customs declarations are needed in all scenarios, even if the UK remains part of the Customs Union, customs entries and paperwork will still be required. However, in a no-deal Brexit scenario the rules are slightly different because the designated Ro-Ro ports facing the EU are not inventory-linked. Therefore the importer (or customs broker, if used) would only need one CSP port badge to operate at all of these ports.
The full list of Ro-Ro ports facing the EU and not inventory linked, you can find HERE. It is in fact all the main ports including Dover, Folkestone and Hull.
In answer to her question, someone claims that no authorisation is needed, just the declarant’s EORI (Economic Operators Registration and Identification number). Apparently you are supposed to finalise the entry within 6 months of arrival of he goods and "must have any necessary authorisations (e.g. CFSP, DDA etc) by then." DDA = Duty Deferment Account by the way.
To which Ms Jerzewsak says, "Well you need an authorisation to operate simplifications - especially EIDR. And then a port manifest doc?"
Her interlocutor appears to agree and adds, "Oh. And via GVMS. Which, per a call with HMRC this AM, should be ready by 23 Dec." GVMS = Goods Vehicle Movement Service, the IT system which does not go fully live until 8 days before the transition ends! It all looks like a shambles and this is on imported goods.
So, the government's wheeze to allow imports in after 1 January without checks does not seem to be the panacea they thought it was. Finally, Peter MacSwiney, Chairman of ASM UK Ltd, the leading provider of Customs clearance and data management software and chair of the trade body representing these software providers, steps in with his own tweet:
Well we'll just be waiving everything through when it comes to it. We have no real possibility of using the various half assed systems we'll have in place. The problem will come when the French start stopping trucks that don't have the right import and export docs for their side.
— Peter MacSwiney (@macswineyspeaks) November 25, 2020
f he's right, and I think he probably is. it will be a smugglers charter with massive opportunities for VAT avoidance and fraud even on the much reduced level of traffic because the route is served 85% by foreign drivers and hauliers who don't want to come to the UK to sit in a queue on the M20 or at Manston airfield while our exporters and freight forwarders get up to speed. They may be caught up for days.
It would be suicidal for the government NOT to seek an extension and I am more than ever convinced there will be one - or Johnson will be gone by February. Leavers may have had their hopes of immediate sunlit uplands dashed and could be prepared to give the government the benefit of the doubt for a year or two - IF we get a smooth transition. But food shortages in January? I don't think so.
