Tuesday 24 November 2020

The Brexit "scorecard"

The corner into which Johnson has painted himself becomes clearer by the day as we edge towards a trade deal with just 22 working days to go.  The Centre for Brexit Policy has published an "ideal scorecard" and warned him not to "sell out" Britain. The scorecard sets out the criteria by which they will judge whether the PM and Frost have been successful. The tests, I might add are rather simple and easily fudged so expect a big argument anyway. There is probably no deal which is acceptable to the Brexiteers.

It is however, an indication that the deal is going to be put under the microscope in a more thorough way than the Withdrawal Agreement. This is probably one of the reasons Johnson wants to limit the time available for scrutiny.

The Tory MP for Rother Valley, Alexander Stafford, has endorsed the list, describing it as "definitive" in an article for Conservative Home. He says:

"Previous polling of Red Wall voters carried out by Savanta ComRes – especially those who switched to the Conservative Party – has shown, if the Conservative Party were not to deliver on its promises to “Get Brexit Done”, to deliver Brexit by the end of 2020, to leave the single market or the customs union, a quarter of Red Wall voters would be less likely to vote Conservative. Reaching the level of our 2019 victory – where we won more votes than any party for 25 years – would likely become unattainable."

Absent from the definitive list is any mention of Britain being better off after Brexit and this is the problem isn't it. I honestly don't think his Rother Valley constituents give a tinker's cuss about the EU or Brexit. They probably voted to leave in the belief it was the means to an end, not the end itself and certainly not if it made them and their lives worse than in 2016. Some may say they're prepared for any hardship to get out of the EU but I'm not convinced it applies to that many.

The list shows what a problem it is for Johnson. He has wandered into the corner by a series of short-term career-focused decisions without any real idea of the bigger picture or a definite strategy.  Now he has to "deliver" the Brexit he said had been "done" in January without massive damage and chaos at the borders which are going to demonstrate beyond doubt just how stupid the decision he urged voters to take in 2016 was.  He will also need to convince hardliners he has met their demands for total independence - isolation almost.  The two positions are poles apart and irreconcilable.

On the day I spotted this (yesterday) there was something of a mini Twitter storm about Nissan closing the Sunderland plant. This was started by someone tweeting a report in a German car magazine's gossip column. The tweet showed an image of the column - which was genuine - and seemed to be authoritative. I took the trouble to retype the German into Google translate to check if it had been translated in error.  You can see the tweet below:

This is what it says in English:

"Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, the carmakers on the island have been warning of a “no deal”. But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes that he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality is now taking revenge. According to reports, Nissan plans to close its Sunderland plant, a decision has been made and is not favorable to the UK, said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. CEO Ashwani Gupta recently warned that if Brexit comes without a viable business model being recognized then it is no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."

Nissan Sunderland have dismissed the reports according to The Sunderland Echo.   Note The Echo says 70 per cent of the plant's output goes to the EU and someone on Twitter remarked that the production lines in Sunderland could be dismantled and rebuilt in (say) Romania in three months and I think this is true - certainly within six months.

The comments by Ashwani Gupta are well known and it seems unless 55 per cent of the vehicles are UK sourced there will be tariffs, putting the plant at risk or seriously limiting Nissan's options of what components can go into cars built in the UK.  The future of Sunderland is at risk, of that there is little doubt.

This is going to be repeated at many UK factories in the coming years. There is no point in any international investor coming to the UK in order to export to the EU.  This is a fact.  Those that are here now may stay but cut investment in the future until the plant closes a few years down the line.

For domestic production, of course it makes sense to stay and this will help to reduce imports but exports, the part of our economy which pays for imports and for which Brexiteers want to go "global," will suffer badly.

Finally, Joe Biden has chosen Antony Blinken as his Secretary of State, a francophone who can be seen in the clip below on French TV speaking in flawless French. He has described Brexit as a "total mess" and spoken of how important it is to the USA to have a strong partner inside the EU:

We are kicking off our new (but temporary) life outside the EU by damaging our relationship with Europe and the USA. It does not bode well does it?

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