Tuesday 22 December 2020

EU holding firm on fish and LPF

As the talks reach their climax, the notion that the EU27 will somehow 'substantially shift' position is being exposed as the wishful thinking it is. One of Johnson's many errors was to think that the UK is the equal of the EU27. We may be sovereign equals but not at the economic level, and ultimately this is what counts in matters of trade. The decision not to engage realistically months ago means the talks never entered the conventional 'tunnel' and hence details of the talks on fish have leaked out and this will come back to devour him.

The two sides began well apart. The UK wanted a three year transition followed by the return of 80% of the EU quota. The EU wanted ten years and 15-18% quota returned.

A few days ago Barnier offered 22.5% but this was countered with 60% from Frost. The three year period came down to six.  It's believed Barnier wanted to raise his offer even higher to 25% but the fishing member states pushed back and expressed some anger that even 22.5% was too much.

Today, according to The Guardian, Britain is now offering 35% and five years. However, France’s European affairs minister, Clément Beaune, said France would be vigilant about the UK’s proposals, with concerns in Paris that the UK has not done enough on the other key sticking point of committing to a “level playing field” in a trade in goods.

“There have been successive proposals from the UK, sometimes on fishing, that don’t respond to European priorities and demands,” Beaune said. “Difficulties remain, in the fishing sector, but not only, so it would be an error of judgment and unacceptable stigmatisation to say that a few countries or a few sectors are blocking.”

It clearly demonstrates the unequal nature of the relationship and the grudging acceptance of it by Britain. The EU are perfectly well aware of the value of the single market and see the empty rhetoric on this side as bluster.  They have not changed their mandate or demands and don't see why they should.

Gove told MPs on Hilary Benn's select committee last Friday that if no agreement was reached  by 31 December, we would leave on WTO terms and we wouldn't come back to the table. It looks ridiculous from both Brussels and Washington, a nation fallen a long way from its imperial past, doing a final bit of sabre rattling. 

The talks have been politicised from the outset and have been a proxy for war for many Brexiteers. Britain keeps talking about sovereignty and Johnson is desperate to declare a 'win' over the EU. The national interest has taken a back seat, as was always going to be the case since Brexit is per se against Britain's interests.

Raoul Ruparel was an advisor to the government under Mrs May and tweeted his solution to the fish issue which is the same as the figures suggested in The Guardian article and already rejected:

It is basically, the classic 'split the difference' between the two offers on the table, assuming the two sides are equal. The problem of course is that they are not and not even close.

The EU is 27 nations, seven times the population and six or seven times the GDP. It does not need to make the same concessions. This morning's Guardian story shows how wrong he was.

Johnson's problem is that the figures are now out in the public domain.  They are likely to end up even closer to the EU position - and with a review clause at the end so that if the UK 'takes back control' of its coastal waters and denies access to EU vessels, the EU will respond with tariffs on fish or blocking exports altogether. They may want to reopen the whole issue of the trade deal for renegotiation.

This is going to go down badly in the ERG and in the fishing communities already faced with a mountain of paperwork, to say nothing of the pages of the Express and Mail.

In the beginning, the UK government thought it could play off the EU against the USA by starting talks on a free trade agreement with Trump in Washington. Biden's victory has blocked that route off and we are now seeing the USA and the EU working together against the UK. A blog post at the LSE shows how Ireland has been able to leverage its diplomatic efforts: Brexit Britain collides with Irish soft power in both Washington and Brussels

Finally, to see how Johnson has painted himself into an ever tighter corner, Pippa Crerrar tweeted that a No 10 spokesman has said the government is now using the clock against parliament. With nine days left, no published text yet available and still the biggest, most contentious issues to be resolved, they are saying MPs will get a vote on any deal but it must take place before the  31st December and provisional application will not be allowed.

This will enrage MPs on all sides of the argument.

The European parliament have already said they will not now scrutinise the deal before New Year and it will have to be applied provisionally and debated afterwards. The UK parliament is being denied that opportunity and will be furious.

Legislation implementing what is said to amount to 1,800 pages of legal text and annexes will be whistled through both houses and given Royal assent in two days. I seem to remember Cash and Redwood complaining bitterly about the treaty of Maastricht being rammed through at speed and it was far longer than one day's debate.

At the moment Johnson finds himself opposed to Barnier and the EU27 but soon he will himself against the USA, the European parliament, the UK parliament, the official opposition, his own MPs, the right wing press and the Tory party.

I stick to my prediction that there will be a deal. But I admit it's looking less likely although I also think no deal will be the better outcome for remainers since the full impact of Brexit will finally become clear and a quick return made more likely.

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