Johnson is now threatening to leave without a trade deal. Let's be clear the EU have offered the best deal it has ever offered to any developed country, an unprecedented tariff and quote free access to the largest single market in the world. The deal is 95 per cent agreed. All the EU are asking for is that the UK mimic some flanking policies as they develop over time and the means for both sides to retaliate quickly if the other offends, under one overarching agreement. This is what Johnson has rejected and is prepared to walk away from, so we are told.
David Gauke, the former Tory cabinet minister tweeted his take on it.
The Govt position is that it’s intolerable to enter into an agreement where there’s a possibility that, at some point in future, tariffs & quotas on EU trade will apply. So we’ll leave on WTO terms & tariffs & quotas on EU trade will apply immediately. And we’ll prosper mightily.
— David Gauke (@DavidGauke) December 10, 2020
I half suspect this is why Von Der Leyen wanted to meet Johnson in person. Nobody can quite believe what the UK's position is. We are prepared to accept WTO rules or NATO rules (going to war if necessary) but EU rules on employment and environmental matters? Nah, not a chance, mate.
Johnson is now so far out on the delusional limb it's hard to see how he can ever recover.
His negotiating strategy is to push and push so far that only a clear victory at the end is conceivable. Failure would make you look a complete fool. This is where he is now, on the verge of looking like the biggest idiot ever to lead a modern western country into penury.
Did he and Lord Frost not understand the EU could never grant tariff and quota free access without getting a commitment to stick by their rules? Apparently not. They are going to end up with a lot of egg on their faces.
The FT are starting to point the finger at Frost, apparently the same man who advised Johnson last year that the EU would accept a technological solution to the Irish border - and when Merkel told him they would not, he was forced to go down the sea border route:
A reminder via @pmdfoster that this is not the first time David Frost has disastrously misread the EU. Why on earth did Johnson continue to rely on this toady rather than find a skilled and experienced negotiator who could give him robust independent advice? pic.twitter.com/8MQaGNvwKn
— Simon Nixon (@Simon_Nixon) December 10, 2020
Simon Nixon calls Lord Frost a "toady" and I think he probably is, but he is an extremely stupid one as well, one whose name will go down in history as the person who negotiated the worst trade deal ever. It will take years and years to fix.
I am starting to think Johnson really believed the problem with Brexit was that it was being handled by people who didn't 'believe' in it and that the massive difficulties in delivering what he had promised was simply a figment of remainers imaginations.
The PM has got himself into a real corner. There will be no "one bound and Jack was free" moment for him. His strategy was badly flawed. By not accepting the need for an extension, a tariff and quota free deal was all that was possible, but now the price to be paid is too high. He has built up expectations on both sides, to Brexiteers that he will not make any concessions and to voters up and down the country, that he will get a deal and very little will change (my own sister told me that last year!).
Somebody is going to be badly let down.
I don't know if there is anything behind the tweet below. It's from an author who is half French half British and writes the 'David Saunders' book series (whatever they are) under a pseudonym and tweets under the handle archer_rs - another pseudonym apparently. I follow him and he has in the past claimed high level contacts in the Foreign Office. Yesterday we got this:
Well this is interesting. I am told that the UK has very quietly today raised the possibility of extending the current transition by a further 12 months. Been done at Civil Service level not by politicians. #Brexit
— RS Archer (@archer_rs) December 10, 2020
What to make of that? To me it sounds logical but the idea such a plan would be made and be leaked the same day seems absolutely incredible. However, we live in hope. It would destroy Johnson and that cannot be anything other than a good thing.
Denis Macshane, former Labour MP and Europe minister (and jailbird) claims to have been given details of the VdL - Johnson meeting on Wednesday. He suggests the meeting went badly, much worse than we have been told:
Friend with hi level contacts said Johnson's arrogance destroyed hopes last night. "BJ went in with all guns blazing, urging VDL to sideline Barnier, claiming that he was an obstacle to a deal. VDL made it very clear to BJ that Barnier’s mandate was solid, she called his bluff."
— Denis MacShane (@DenisMacShane) December 10, 2020
Again, I have no idea if this is true - we may find out one day - but it seems to fit with other accounts.
Finally, I want to come back to the question of the "oven ready deal." The BBC fact checked it and say Johnson was referring to the WA when he talked of the over readiness of it in two public debates and in the Tory manifesto. But now another clip has emerged of an ITV reporter questioning him on the campaign trail last year. See what you think:
Tonight, Boris Johnson suggests we are heading for "No Deal"When I asked him about an EU trade deal exactly a year ago on the election trail, he told me "we have a deal"- But the TRADE deal?"100% of the issues are already addressed"— Gareth Owen (@GarethITV) December 10, 2020
Many politicians mislead. let's be honest, but few can lie in the way Boris can. He does it as easily as blinking and with as much thought. Lying is instinctive, a sort of defence mechanism when faced with awkward questions.
Usually politicians mislead to force through policies which civil service research show is either necessary or desirable in some way. I don't believe in our entire history a PM has lied to such a well documented extent to force through a policy which the civil service regards as disastrous for the country.
One day it will all catch up with him.
