The two chief negotiators have decided to throw in the towel and admit they cannot agree a deal on their present mandates and have decided to pause the talks while they brief their respective principals and schedule a conversation between Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson later today. They released a joint statement by tweet (below). There is something wonderfully symmetrical and ironic about the fact that concessions on the crucial issues are to be decided by Johnson himself, leader of the Vote Leave campaign.
Here is Lord Frost's tweet:
Here is a statement from myself and @MichelBarnier about the state of play in our negotiations. pic.twitter.com/P5Uhg7RQUz
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) December 4, 2020
It is I think, obvious to any impartial observer that:
- VdL has less room for manoeuvre with 27 leaders behind her
- France has threatened to veto the deal if it doesn't think its interests are served
- The EU is prepared to operate their external border from 1 January we are not
- The impact of no deal will be much more keenly felt in the UK
Therefore, there is little chance or need for the EU to make any concessions. They must all come from the UK - unless VdL plays her hand extremely badly. All she has to do is tell Johnson that's it unless he agrees. If he does so it wouldn't be a surprise if Lord Frost resigns.
James Forsyth in The Times (he is well plugged in to Downing Street) said on Thursday he expected a deal to be agreed by Monday and he also claimed Johnson is always the most hard-line (i.e. deluded) Brexiteer in the cabinet room. We shall see on Monday.
I am sure a deal will be settled this weekend in principle and we might begin to see the details next week of the 800 page document that will underpin our future relationship with Europe for the next few years until we realise what a silly idea Brexit was and rejoin.
We have about 26 days to go to prepare to comply with the terms of the deal with the CBI already warning of a "tidal wave" of red tape about to engulf us even if we get an agreement.
Johnson is going to face a barrage of criticism from the ERG because the deal will certainly include LPF measures with enforcement mechanisms that will hurt the UK if we ever try to undercut EU standards on employment, social and environmental issues. The EU will never agree to a deal without such safeguards. This is the decision that Johnson will have to make.
If he gives away a sliver of sovereignty he will be in deep trouble and yet it's hard to see how he can agree a deal which doesn't give the upper hand to the EU. No deal is, as I have always argued, unthinkable, not just because of the massive additional problems it would cause but we would have to restart talks with Brussels almost immediately to try and avoid the worst effects but without a clock ticking and without the threat of walking away.
The EU would be able to watch the UK car industry grind to a halt, with Nissan announcing a closure perhaps; agriculture suffer a massive blow as tariffs are applied to their EU exports and our security reduced as we lose access to EU databases. Companies will begin to relocate - especially financial ones and we would soon be back at the table.
Merkel is expected to make a crucial intervention with the FT saying this morning:
"A spokesman for Angela Merkel, German chancellor, appealed for “compromise on both sides”. EU officials denied making new demands and Charles Michel, European Council president, said: “The British side needs to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’, the member states need to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’.”
Council president Michel seems to be saying it's take it or leave it time - and perhaps it is.
