The extent to which Johnson is isolating Britain from Europe is well captured in a graphic doing the rounds on Twitter. You can see it below. I used to hear people talk of Europe with countries organised as a group of 'concentric circles' and unless I'm mistaken it's a phrase used in Dr North's grand opus known as Flexcit. The graphic, while not quite circular, conveys the idea and shows Britain has moved from close to the centre to the very outer edge. It's a startling representation of what happened on 1 January this year.
Here it is:
And yet even that doesn't quite do Johnson justice (or injustice if you like) because it doesn't include the five accession candidate countries who are desperate to go the other way. They include Albania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey.
And if president Lukashenko, who has been in power since July 1994 but looks increasingly beleaguered, is toppled in Belarus, I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to join too. Support for the EU has only increased across Europe since 2016 so the Brexiteers dearest wish to see the bloc break up is further away than ever.
Add to that the fact that Scotland and Northern Ireland voted in 2016 to remain in the EU and a recent poll in Wales shows a majority in a new referendum would vote to remain and you see that Brexit is pretty well a uniquely English problem. Finally, the series of YouGov polls on WhatUKthinks seems to show a reducing majority for Brexit even in the English regions so I'm not sure if even England would vote the same way again.
All of this has to be understood against the rising tide of chaos engulfing the UK as we struggle to come to terms with what leaving the single market and the customs union actually means. After three weeks industries are already demanding to be bailed out by the government. Fishing may be the first but it won't be the last. Some of the delays and chaotic scenes at the ports may be due to teething problems but as many are starting to recognise, many of the extra frictions and costs are here to stay and will have a profound effect on the markets in Europe who will choose to source elsewhere to avoid the hassle.
When the full impact of Brexit - what someone called our 'self-imposed sanctions' - becomes clear I daresay the only group who stubbornly refuse to concede Brexit has been an almighty disaster will be the Tory party and Nigel Farage's Reform party (formerly The Brexit party, formerly UKIP).
I do not see how this could ever be a sustainable position. How could we hold general elections where the elephant, not just in the room but in the whole nation, is membership of the EU? Labour's current position of not offering any comfort to remain voters may be wise but it can't last.
As industries and supply chains reconfigure themselves, it is clear that the EU will be the winner and jobs will be lost in this country. Brexit cannot escape being blamed. Fishermen are just the first to cry betrayal. A long line will follow.
Finally on this Saturday morning, can I point you to an article in the FT yesterday by George Parker, Peter Foster, Sam Fleming and Jim Brunsden? It is an excellent read, the inside story of the negotiations entitled: How the Brexit deal was done — and what happens next
It contrasts Johnson's high-flown rhetoric about opening "a new chapter in our national story,” as he told MPs on December 30 with the reality as on the first trading day of 2021:
"David Howson, president of Cboe Europe, one of London’s biggest exchanges, sat at his computer and watched stunned as €6bn of EU share dealing shifted away from the City to facilities in European capitals. 'Having been in this industry for over 20 years, I’ve never seen a ‘Big Bang’ liquidity transition of this type before in share trading and I hope it’s not something I have to experience again,' he says."
The article goes on:
"The bill for Johnson’s relentless focus on sovereignty is now due. The government’s deal does allow for the continuation of tariff-free trade for goods that qualify as British- or EU-made. However, Britain’s exit from the customs union and single market on January 1 created a thicket of customs declarations, health checks and other barriers to trade. Services, which make up 80 per cent of the British economy including its crown jewel — the City of London — barely get a look-in.
"Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, recently told reporters that Britain had simply got what Johnson asked for. 'There are mechanical, obvious, inevitable consequences when you leave the single market and that’s what the British wished to do,' he said."
Johnson deliberately set his sights low to avoid conceding any 'sovereignty' but actually came out with less anyway. The following section puts it all into perspective, Johnson shambolic and stupid, the EU, smart, sophisticated and urbane:
No moment better sums up the cultural gulf between Johnson and the EU than a crucial dinner on December 9 at European Commission headquarters: the prime minister rammed home his determination to reclaim sovereignty for Britain at all costs, even if that meant walking away from trade negotiations without any deal at all.
British officials say the Berlaymont event between a typically dishevelled Johnson and the immaculately tailored European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, was “a disaster”. The venue itself was an awkward reminder of Johnson’s reputation in EU circles as an untrustworthy wrecker; as a journalist in Brussels in the 1990s, he had “revealed” non-existent plans to dynamite the Berlaymont, in spite of the potential risk of blasting asbestos across the city.
The dinner between British prime minister Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on December 9 reinforced the cultural gulf separating the two sides
Johnson’s attempts to break the deadlock over a menu of scallops and turbot — supposedly a humorous nod by von der Leyen to stalled talks on fishing quotas — were greeted with icy silence. “At one point, the whole EU side were sitting with their arms folded, saying nothing,” says one. The encounter started with von der Leyen telling Johnson to put on his Covid-19 mask and deteriorated from there. One UK negotiator said: “We all got back to the ambassador’s residence afterwards and looked at each thinking: ‘Oh my god.’”
Shortly afterwards, the prime minister called von der Leyen to try to patch things up. “We need to defibrillate the talks,” he said. “A bit like that scene in Pulp Fiction with Uma Thurman.” The commission president was nonplussed by the reference to Thurman’s character getting an adrenaline shot. “Be careful Boris,” she replied. “You’re talking to a medical doctor.”
At the heart of the disagreement was the EU’s insistence that if Britain wanted tariff-free access to its single market of almost 450 million people, it could not be allowed to dramatically undercut the European economic model, with its tough standards on workers’ rights, climate change and subsidies. If Britain did significantly undermine the “level playing field”, its market access should be curtailed. After almost 50 years of membership of the European club, Johnson wanted sovereignty, pure and simple.
My admiration for Fr. Von der Leyen only grows. She is the mother of seven, a former medical doctor, with a Master's degree in public health and has risen through German politics to become Defence Minister before joining the EU and is now president of the Commission.
Compare her to the shambling chaotic Johnson who seems unable to operate a comb unaided.
