Monday, 11 January 2021

We finally understand what Brexit means - food shortages

I begin with the first paragraph of an article in The Guardian by Toby Helm. "Ministers must restart trade negotiations with Brussels immediately to sort out the 'baffling' array of post-Brexit rules and regulations that now threaten much of the UK’s export trade to the EU, leading business groups have said."  Apparently, this came after a meeting last Thursday between Gove and 'business groups' in what is described as an emergency session.  The report says:

"One leading figure involved in the talks with Gove described the new rule book as a 'complete shitshow'. Another said Gove seemed “very concerned” at hearing reports of problems, after a week in which Marks & Spencer was among leading companies to warn that more bureaucracy would increase costs. The source added: 'He [Gove] seemed to realise the full gravity of the situation that is unfolding and about to get worse'.”

If Gove did realise the gravity of the situation he didn't show it when he appeared before the cameras on Friday calmly forecasting 'significant disruption' before things get better. 

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of the manufacturers’ organisation Make UK (formerly the Engineering Employers Federation), is quoted saying:

“Industry welcomed the trade agreement that avoided the catastrophe of no-deal, as tariffs and quotas would have been a disaster for exporters. However, this is only a starting point, as there are still substantial issues that need ironing out, with many months, if not years, of tough negotiations ahead.

“There are customs experts with 30 years’ experience who are baffled by what the new regulations mean, let alone small and medium sized businesses who have never had to deal with the kind of paperwork that is now required. The great fear is that for many it will prove too much and they will simply choose not to export to the EU.”

John Martin, Policy Manager (NI) at the RHA tweeted in response to a TV report yesterday about shortages in Northern Ireland:

All of these problems are soon to be repeated at Dover and across the UK.  The government honestly seemed to believe it could impose a massive change in the trading relationship with our largest overseas market overnight with almost no preparation and that it would all go off without a hitch.  I suppose they were counting on good old British exceptionalism.

Several trade commentators have put the blame squarely on the government. The negotiators prioritised Johnson's red lines and hence we ended up with a very thin, very basic deal. If you place sovereignty above trade and the unity of the Tory party above everything, this is what you get.

And the notion that the EU will be interested in quickly resolving our problems and negotiating fixes, short-cuts and easements to get trade flowing again is for the birds. If Brussels agrees anything it will be even more to their advantage since we are in the weakest of all positions.

Fishing is settled until 2026, we can't threaten to walk out and all of the border problems leading to empty shelves and shortages as well as temporary factory closures (possibly many permanent ones too) are all too apparent. They can't be pooh-poohed away bt claiming they need us more than we need them when it's quite clear they don't.

The difficulty for Johnson from now on is that the only things he has to offer in exchange for any small concessions will be his red lines.

James Withers, CEO of the Scottish Food and Drink Association thinks the problems at Dover may be less visible than we think but the real damage is being done elsewhere:

I fear this is all too true.

The Daily Mail has an article about coming shortages of fresh produce which is simply reported factually with no indication that they were at the forefront of calling for Brexit although plenty on Twitter were happy to remind them they used to call it 'project fear':

The commercial director at fresh produce wholesaler Nature’s Choice, Vernon Mascarenhas, said: 

"We will begin to see gaps on shelves from this Wednesday. The only way to resolve it is for the Government to sort out the paperwork issue. This should have been at the top of the Government’s agenda, but it did not even cross their radar."

No, it didn't - but it very soon will. Rupert Myers, a writer, took this picture on Saturday so Brexit is probably coming to a store near you very soon:


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