As might have been predicted a long time ago, the relationship between the UK and the EU seems to go from bad to worse. Given the Conservative party's loathing of everything east of Dover with the name Europe in it, I suppose we shouldn’t be too surprised. It is however, worrying to those of us who harbour dreams of rejoining the EU at some future date. That looks slightly optimistic at the moment. Until the Tories changes it's hard to see the relationship moving in a better direction.
Foreign secretary Dominic Raab has called in the EU representative, the one we refuse to give the title of ambassador to, for a dressing down after EU Council President Charles Michel suggested we had imposed a de facto ban on vaccine exports by hogging all of Astra Zeneca’s output for UK use. The government denies it of course, but were smug when AZ fell short of delivering EU vaccines, leaving our supplies untouched which may or may not amount to a ban.
This follows the confrontational Lord Frost’s appointment as minister for Brexit opportunities and his belligerent article in the Telegraph last Sunday. All of it set against the rapidly deteriorating situation in Northern Ireland and the desperate efforts of British industry, especially fishing, food and finance, to overcome the baked in disadvantages of Brexit. The UK government must find a scapegoat and where best to find one than in the brooding towers of Mordor - better known to us as Brussels.
Mujtaba Raman MD for Europe at the Eurasia Group and formerly at the UK Treasury and the EU Commission, tweeted this morning:
I've long argued that the post-Brexit UK-EU relationship would be difficult, but even I'm surprised how far & fast it has sunkA senior EU official tells me: “Johnson is a crook. He's signed up to something he has no intention of implementing.“Negative levels of trust— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) March 10, 2021
There is not just no trust but active distrust and Britain is becoming viewed in the same light as Russia, a nation with a permanent chip on its shoulder for failing to be given the respect and position it thinks it is due and led by a crook.
This is a dangerous moment for the country. We are at a fork in the road.
The FT's Peter Foster had an article yesterday about British industry urging Johnson to cool things down:
"Shane Brennan, the chief executive of the Cold Chain Federation that represents the perishable products industry, said Frost must work to ensure that trading businesses did not become 'pawns' in a bigger political game stoking longstanding animosities with the EU.
“Adopting a ‘madman’ negotiating strategy might be great politics, but it’s terrible for food supply chains. The next few months are make or break for the food industry. A strong recovery from lockdown is vital and supply chain instability would shatter fragile confidence,” he said.
"The rise in temperature comes as Cabinet ministers deliberate how strictly the UK should enforce new border controls which are scheduled to be imposed on EU food exporters to the UK after April 1."
The problem here is that Frost has 'form' with the EU. Back in 2019 and in 2020 in negotiations on the Protocol and the TCA, he was often seen as deliberately confrontational - part of the Vote Leave 'madman' strategy to get a decent deal. /3
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) March 9, 2021
