He begins by taking us back to the end of September 2019 when Johnson made a statement to the House of Commons and read out a statement, later followed on 2 October by an explanatory note, which repeated his words and inter alia said:
"The UK sets out below a proposal for an agreement which should be acceptable to both sides and which delivers the objectives of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement. This proposal would [ ]
" provide for the creation of an all-island regulatory zone on the island of Ireland, covering not just sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and agri-food rules but all goods, thus eliminating regulatory checks for trade in goods between Northern Ireland and Ireland"
Quite what Johnson thought he was setting out isn't obvious. but it is clear to me that this meant a border down the Irish sea, even if the PM didn't realise it at the time. Far from the EU forcing the sea border on us, it was a UK government proposal, it was his own proposal.
Johnson was prepared to ditch the unionists.
As Connelly pointed out, although he still proposed a customs border, the implication of Johnson's offer was a regulatory border on the Irish Sea, and it is this border which is now causing all of the issues which many in the Tory party want scrapped.
Barely six weeks before, on 19 August, Johnson had written to EU Council president Donald Tusk warning that such a backstop would see Northern Ireland "gradually detached from the UK economy across a very broad range of areas," an outcome that was "unacceptable to the British government".
Either Johnson is epically stupid or he is an incredibly devious liar. I tend towards the former myself although either could be true.
Connelly says the Irish were trying to mediate between the two sides but have been put in a difficult position:
"We were, fairly unapologetically, trying to act as an interpreter between the British and EU side," says a senior Irish Government source. "Of course, the legs have been whipped out from under us by the British manoeuvre because it was done unilaterally. Obviously, we have no choice now but to double down on the EU side."
His article says there is a "growing conviction" on the EU side that the UK will periodically go "rogue" in order to secure more concessions. This has led to a hardening of attitudes in EU capitals.
"When the issue was discussed by EU ambassadors last week, a number of diplomats wondered if Brussels should start thinking about the leverage it has, including the granting of equivalence for financial services.
"They were not threatening to withhold an equivalence decision," says one diplomat present. "Nevertheless, the suggestion was made that it is hard to do business if [the UK] basically refuses to implement [the protocol], and, as with the Internal Market Bill, tries to extract things by going on a rogue path.
"Instead of offering the other cheek, the commission should think again about what kinds of elements we have, if we are really living in a world of distrust and non-compliance," the diplomat said.
Apart from the equivalence decision on financial services, there is potentially the decision by the European parliament to ratify the deal (a nuclear option that nobody expects but can't be ruled out) there is also the data adequacy decision, which could affect virtually every bit of cross border trade, making it more difficult and more expensive.
This is pointed out by Tom Hayes in a blog post:
Our latest #beergbrexitblog considers the UK's data dilemma. If it wants to strike data deals with third countries then it risks losing the EU adequacy decision - this would be costly for the UK, and extremely disruptive for businesses and individualshttps://t.co/Fgz1j3E7OJ
— Tom Hayes (@BEERG) March 21, 2021
So, the EU still has plenty of pull and I suspect, like all the previous sticking points, the UK government will eventually back down but will use the rancour created to sustain the anti-EU sentiment and therefore political support among the electorate, driven by the EU baiting press.
Brussels really need to play this very carefully, but I suspect they are getting close to the point where they care about what Britain thinks.
