We shall see. The EU have yet to respond and that will be interesting. Personally, I would be amazed if they took our word for it, the timing is suspiciously advantageous isn't it? And even if it's eventually accepted, it will take some time.
LBMs that have for years been depurated (purified) in the EU can now apparently be eaten straight from the sea. Would you do that? The Express carries the story as well so you can be assured it comes out of Downing Street and this I think shows the seriousness with which the government is taking it. The Shellfish industry is very small and set against the wider economic hit is nothing but it clearly has an iconic status and shows just how vulnerable the UK is to the interpretation of EU rules. And frequently, interpretation is just as important as the rules themselves.
The Mail build the 'revenge' narrative and defend DEFRA Secretary Eustice with this:
"The European Commission said it would not accept crustaceans fished from Britain's so-called Class-B waters – which account for the vast majority of the produce – on the grounds of 'purity', despite Ministers being able to point to correspondence in which Brussels assured the UK that the exports would be allowed if accompanied by the right health certificate."
The bit about ministers having received assurances is true, I think DEFRA did get assurances about LBMs from Class B waters which can probably still be exported anyway - but not for human consumption, which is the key point made by Stella Kyriakides in her letter of 10 February:
"...this certificate, as clear from its title, provides animal health guarantees only, and cannot be used to provide public health assurances, should live bivalve molluscs be intended for human consumption."
This shouldn't be hard to understand.
I note yesterday morning Dr North also covered this topic and he says, in connection with Offshore Shellfish Ltd, with the tonnage they are talking about they should think about setting up a depuration plant of their own. But I believe this has already been dismissed because of the 42 hour depuration cycle which would then leave the LBMs unable to survive the journey to the EU, so that's a non starter anyway.
No, the answer may be in reclassifying our coastal waters but I'm not sure that will be enough. Class A LBMs can be eaten straight out of the sea but I'm not sure anybody in continental Europe would do that and depurating in the EU will probably still be needed for safety. We wait to see what the Commission say.
Elsewhere, an economist named Wolfgang Munchau makes the claim that Brexit is likely to be a "macroeconomic non-event" and he writes a piece for Euro Intelligence to explain it:
my latest column in which I make the surely uncontroversial claim that Brexit has been, and is likely to be, a macroeconomic non-event. https://t.co/b7UxNyzsFk
— Wolfgang Munchau (@EuroBriefing) April 19, 2021
It has received a lot of pushback, not least for some schoolboy errors in the use of percentages. Munchau for example, says:
"What has not been reported nearly as much is that UK exports have fully recovered. They were up 46.6% in February after falling by 42% in January."
If I start with 100, and reduce it by 50%, I reach 50. If this rises by 50% I am at 75%. Note this still leaves me 25% down and is hardly "fully" recovering what has been lost. Others says the shifting of a trillion pounds out of the UK is hardly a non-event (the UK's GDP is only £2 trillion) while others say the damage is likely to be long term and can't be measured after 3 months.
In fact the 42% drop followed by a 46% rise leaves our exports 15% down. This is a lot.
I noticed one reply in support (now lost in the avalanche of criticism) which said a country's economic performance was based on fundamental things like investment and productivity, but this is exactly the point I have been making for years. If you travel around the UK and visit factories and were not told beforehand which were British owned and which European (or EU), you would soon figure it out.
The EU owned ones are invariably (invariably) better run, more organised, modern, with fewer staff and higher levels of investment. British owned plants are often stuffed with second hand plant or have a staff of dozens of agency workers doing what a machine could do faster, better and longer.
Ever since the referendum and now we are out of the EU, we are seeing a decline in investment even below the already low levels and therefore the 'fundamentals' are only going to get worse. This is the issue. Brexit is not likely to improve this one iota and will only make things worse.
