However, they claim to have "identified more than 440 firms in the banking and finance industry in the UK that have responded to Brexit by relocating part of their business, moving some staff, or setting up new entities in the EU."
This isn't new but it is certainly a bigger number than I've seen quoted previously.
NF say over 420 of them are setting up new hubs for their EU business, and in all more than 500 separate moves across the EU have been noted. Banks have moved or are moving more than £900bn in assets from the UK to the EU, and insurance firms and asset managers have transferred more than £100bn in assets and funds.
RTE, the Irish broadcaster, trumpets the fact that Ireland is the biggest beneficiary with 135 relocations, followed by Paris with 102, Luxembourg 95, Frankfurt 63, and Amsterdam 48.
"This redistribution of activity across the EU has wound the clock back by about 20 years," NF's study says, presumably harking back to a time before the single market, after which the UK enjoyed an influx of European financial institutions moving the other way. Well, the high water mark was reached in 2016 and the tide has now well and truly turned.
One wonders even if (or when) Brexit is reversed these operations will return? I doubt it.
And pointing to the future they appear to think the figures are a "a significant underestimate of the real picture."
Many firms, they say, will have slipped below the radar (particularly banks and asset managers that are already headquartered in the EU). ‘Getting Brexit done’ is only the end of the beginning of the process: given the limited equivalence arrangements in place and over time they expect there to be a drip-feed of business and activity from the UK to the EU.
"As the EU takes a tougher line on the location of activity and individuals we expect these headline numbers to increase in future."
It's not difficult to look back now on the idiots like David Davis and Digby Jones, who seemed to think there would be no problems in cutting ourselves off from Europe but we can also add Kwasi Kwarteng, now the business secretary, to the list. In October 2016, he penned a piece for Prospect Magazine in which he said:
"Everyone understands that it would be counterproductive for the EU to wage a trade war with a country which represents 16 per cent of the GDP of the EU. Britain is also the second biggest net contributor to the EU’s budget, while London is its financial centre, where 80 per cent of EU sovereign debt is raised. The economies of both the EU and Britain are mutually supporting. Talk of trade wars, embargoes and tariff walls is simply hysterical, and unhelpful."
There didn't need to be a trade war, Brexit has essentially delivered the spoils without a shot being fired.
The inference that the EU and UK are equals and are in some way "mutually supporting" each other has I think been comprehensively dispelled in both the WA and the TCA, both of which heavily favour the EU. Brussels is using its regulatory muscles to force companies to relocate and they will keep up the pressure for as long as is necessary. Kwarteng seemed to think the EU would be happy to have its financial centre outside the bloc, another ridiculous delusion.
The EU project, if it's about anything, is about being self sufficient in as much as possible, especially food and finance and NOT relying on third countries
The golden goose that is The City of London is now laying eggs in various EU capitals which will soon hatch some golden goslings that will grow and overtake her. I'm sure the EU are grateful, but it's just a down payment so far.
I notice that Brexiteers continue to focus on the EU even though we have left. They rail against the NI protocol, blame the EU for applying trade barriers or not granting equivalence to the banks and I suspect this is how life will be after Brexit. They only really know how to create division and I suppose that's what they will always do.
Finally, I note the vaccine related dip in the polling at WhatUKthinks has already corrected itself and WRONG is back in the lead when people are asked if leaving the EU was the right or wrong decision. The last two polls show a 4% lead. I don't believe sentiment has been changed substantially by the success of the UK vaccine roll out and the EU is rapidly catching up.
