There is no doubt the Hartlepool by election result was a bit of a shock. although perhaps it shouldn't be. Labour held the seat in 2019 only because UKIP split the right wing vote and they weren't standing this time - at least not in the sense of being a separate party. But in a way they were standing as the new Tory party weren't they? I grew up on a council estate in the fifties and sixties and I think a lot of people who didn't would be shocked at how far to the right many solid working class votes are.
They may be financially liberal in wanting a lot of public services like the NHS and social care, but socially many of the them are closer to Atilla the Hun.
Was Hartlepool a sign things are changing? It is certainly a topsy-turvy world and already people are calling for Starmer to be replaced - even that he should be replaced by someone further to the left! This would be a disaster. I note Dominic Cummings was tweeting about there being no such thing as the centre ground and things are certainly extremely polarised, but he's wrong and we had better all hope he's wrong otherwise we will never come together:
When pundits who ‘explained’ why Vote Leave’s plan to realign politics was mad/stupid/impossible now give post hoc ‘explanations’ for why it’s all so logical/inevitable … ignore their babble… Pundits = noise not signal. Eg ‘the centre ground’ DOES NOT EXIST, it’s pundit fiction
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 7, 2021
However, John Elledge, who writes for The Guardian posted an interesting piece on the demographics of Hartlepool and some other places.
He looks at the age of the voters based on census data, you can see there has been a gradual increase in the number of elderly people and a decrease in younger ones. I’m surprised by the numbers - you can see them below. A lot of these in older age groups are often Labour voters but socially very conservative and much more likely to be pro-Brexit. They are also more likely to vote. Note the figures are only up to 2011 and he thinks they will only have got worse.
The younger voters are moving away to more prosperous areas and leaving behind the older ones, stewing with resentment and discontent, which manifested itself in the leave vote in 2016 and where a lot of voters think Labour has been dragging its feet over what they have been led to believe is their salvation.
I wonder If Labour’s poor showing isn’t due to this shift plus a significantly reduced turnout giving the Conservative party a deceptive result that may not be replicated across the country and perhaps not in 2024. Their supporters, leave voters all I imagine, have been temporarily distilled out of a much more balanced electorate which will never be replicated again,
It also seems incumbents in government were rewarded because of the vaccinations programme. Labour did well in Wales and the SNP in Scotland, bucking what many pundits think is a trend.
There is also something going on in the south and other traditionally Tory areas where Labour and The Greens did very well at local level at the expense of the Tories. It should bother the Tory party strategists. It is often at local level where the first rumblings of discontent are felt. New governments often come in on a rising tide of local council wins.
Look at these results from Oxfordshire:
Loving the Blue Wall in Oxfordshire... https://t.co/QuvCsfIR4m
— Miles Evans 💙 🇪🇺 (@milominder) May 9, 2021
In Kent, some think there is a backlash against Brexit:
And now an 18% swing in Canterbury...(what’s going on in Kent?) *Brexit* https://t.co/Dyb9lr50gj
— Emma Kennedy💙 (@EmmaKennedy) May 7, 2021
Or what about this from Cambridgeshire where Labour gained the mayoralty from the Tories:
NEW: Big Labour success-they've GAINED the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayoralty. pic.twitter.com/5b23FXyIx1
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) May 8, 2021
The Tory party now seems to be the working class party of the C2, D and E social classes - socially deprived, blue collar, etc - while Labour are more popular with the A, B and C1 group, the better educated, professional classes. Maybe, given the chaotic leadership and simple sloganizing of Boris Johnson, this shouldn't come as a surprise. Professional people know there are no simple answers to anything but working class voters think there is nothing else.
Sadiq Khan held London comfortably as mayor with a bigger majority than Johnson in either of his two terms.
And of course, it all boils down to Brexit. There are those who know it's a disaster and those who don't - yet. The realignment is, I am sure, a temporary thing. Labour will regroup and come back and Brexit is all downhill from here as many people, Tories included, will know.
If Starmer can survive long enough, he will be PM one day and we can look forward to rational government. That day cannot come soon enough - and I'm a conservative.
